2402 SW 156th Loop · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$299,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,892 sqft · Land · 204 Days on market

Built 2025 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully designed Arpoador model features 4 spacious bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and 1,892 sq ft of heated living space, with a total construction area of 2,333 sq ft. The home is finished with SLEEK BRUSHED NICKEL FIXTURES AND ACCENTS, giving it a clean, modern aesthetic throughout. The open-concept kitchen is a showstopper with a WATERFALL QUARTZ ISLAND and comes fully equipped with stainless steel appliances—refrigerator, range, microwave, dishwasher, and disposal. The luxurious owner’s suite offers a STANDALONE TUB, glass-enclosed SHOWER DOOR, and dual vanities. Additional highlights include a SMART KEY entry system, double car garage, covered entry, and a 2-10 HOME

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Standalone tub
• Covered entry

Tags

• WATERFALL QUARTZ ISLAND
• STANDALONE TUB
• GLASS-ENCLOSED SHOWER DOOR
• DUAL VANITIES
• SMART KEY ENTRY SYSTEM
• COVERED ENTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.23 acres (about 931 sq m); Living area reported as 1,892 sq ft (builder source); total building area 2,333 sq ft; Zoned R1

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Completed condition; One story; Faces southwest; New construction
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by 4U Custom Homes Corp (model: Arpoador)
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Lighting (exterior lighting noted under exterior but contributes to interior ambiance)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-411 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (29.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $300k implies a 1774% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,325 (29.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.87%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-80,904
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-127,846
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,103 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,623

Max offer price $240,431

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16008 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,400	$1.37	21d	1	0.15mi
16200 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,800	$1.14	21d	1	0.19mi
16124 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,715	$1.26	13d	1	0.25mi
16252 SW 27th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	13d	1	0.25mi
529 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1883	$2,200	$1.17	13d	1	0.27mi
15701 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	21d	1	0.35mi
2161 SW 153rd Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$2,000	$1.27	21d	1	0.35mi
15741 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	13d	1	0.37mi
15761 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1229	$2,000	$1.63	21d	1	0.37mi
2500 SW 156th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	21d	1	0.42mi
2670 162nd Ln Unit 2670 Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	21d	1	0.46mi
2660 SW 162nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,999	$1.13	21d	1	0.50mi
16390 SW 17th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,825	$1.16	13d	1	0.50mi
2711 SW 162nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,150	$1.20	13d	1	0.51mi
2240 SW 156th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,600	$1.02	21d	1	0.53mi
1631 SW 160th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,795	$1.11	13d	1	0.55mi
2673 SW 156th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,950	$1.05	13d	1	0.55mi
2725 SW 158th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,000	$1.27	13d	1	0.56mi
16015 SW 29th Court Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,450	$1.10	21d	1	0.66mi
2584 SW 154th Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,975	$1.58	21d	1	0.66mi
2836 SW 161st Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,675	$1.23	13d	1	0.68mi
15353 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	13d	1	0.69mi
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,700	$1.08	13d	1	0.71mi
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,699	$1.08	21d	1	0.71mi
1663 SW 167th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	13d	1	0.78mi
2220 SW 169th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,650	$1.21	21d	1	0.79mi
16846 SW 22nd Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,900	$1.20	13d	1	0.79mi
2705 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,745	$1.10	21d	1	0.81mi
2628 SW 165th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	13d	1	0.83mi
16292 SW 30th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	21d	1	0.84mi
15434 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,780	$1.27	13d	1	0.92mi
2603 SW 152nd Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	1.5	1402	$1,550	$1.11	13d	1	0.94mi
16619 SW 31st Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,900	$1.24	13d	1	0.99mi
16690 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,725	$1.07	21d	1	1.01mi
15831 SW 34th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,715	$1.22	13d	1	1.14mi
16100 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	13d	1	1.16mi
16090 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$1,950	$1.08	13d	1	1.19mi
3087 SW 172nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,150	$1.28	13d	1	1.21mi
2211 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	21d	1	1.22mi
17029 SW 30th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,745	$1.33	13d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $299,900 Active 193 DOM
11. 2026-05-08
    status Pending
12. 2026-04-29
    price $299,900
13. 2026-04-08
    price $303,900
14. 2026-03-25
    price $304,900
15. 2026-02-11
    price $309,900
16. 2025-10-29
    listed $314,900 Active
17. 2005-01-21
    soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$10,321
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,477
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1774.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $303,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $304,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $309,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Listed $314,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $427 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.