754 Bunk House Dr · Midlothian, TX 76084

$325,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,048 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2019 1.00 ac lot $159/sqft · 37% below area Est $513k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A beautifully maintained home offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and convenience. Situated in a quiet, established neighborhood, this property provides a peaceful setting while still allowing quick access to major highways. Inside, you’ll find a functional open-concept layout with spacious living and dining areas—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is well-designed with ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a seamless flow into the main living area. The primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an ensuite bathroom and a walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, a home office, or a playroom. Step outside to an oversized, fully fenced backyard—ideal for kids, pets, and outdoor gatherings. This home also features fully paid-off solar panels, keeping utility costs exceptionally low, and the septic system was serviced within the last six months for added peace of mind. Located in the highly regarded Maypearl ISD, this home is the perfect place to settle in and create lasting memories.

Key facts

• Sizable yard
• Walk-in closet
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SIZABLE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-781/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.5% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maypearl ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #325 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,780 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $513,082
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -36.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9451 Norrell Rd	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,016 (-2%)	18mo	$500,000	$248	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $114,164
• Equity at exit: $232,056

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $331,177
• Equity at exit: $447,141

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,720/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,510

Max offer price $313,496

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-04-18
    listed $325,000 Active 1111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1111 chars)

    A beautifully maintained home offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and convenience. Situated in a quiet, established neighborhood, this property provides a peaceful setting while still allowing quick access to major highways. Inside, you’ll find a functional open-concept layout with spacious living and dining areas—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is well-designed with ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a seamless flow into the main living area. The primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an ensuite bathroom and a walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, a home office, or a playroom. Step outside to an oversized, fully fenced backyard—ideal for kids, pets, and outdoor gatherings. This home also features fully paid-off solar panels, keeping utility costs exceptionally low, and the septic system was serviced within the last six months for added peace of mind. Located in the highly regarded Maypearl ISD, this home is the perfect place to settle in and create lasting memories.

16. 2023-03-17
    soldstatus Closed 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Beautiful and spacious manufactured home on 1 acre WITH SOLAR SYSTEM. Wood laminate flooring and carpeting throughout. Very nice sized walk -in closets. Laundy room has full size washer and dryer space, freezer space, mud bench, folding table and cabinets. Master suite is separated from the other two bedrooms. Kitchen with large island, breakfast bar, pantry and lots of cabinets. Master bath has double vanity, large garden tub and separate shower. Extra bath has double vanity and tub and shower combo. Solar System included. Double car carport. Concrete drive and sidewalk. Front deck. NO HOA!

17. 2023-02-11
    status Pending 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Beautiful and spacious manufactured home on 1 acre WITH SOLAR SYSTEM. Wood laminate flooring and carpeting throughout. Very nice sized walk -in closets. Laundy room has full size washer and dryer space, freezer space, mud bench, folding table and cabinets. Master suite is separated from the other two bedrooms. Kitchen with large island, breakfast bar, pantry and lots of cabinets. Master bath has double vanity, large garden tub and separate shower. Extra bath has double vanity and tub and shower combo. Solar System included. Double car carport. Concrete drive and sidewalk. Front deck. NO HOA!

18. 2023-02-04
    historical Active Option Contract 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Beautiful and spacious manufactured home on 1 acre WITH SOLAR SYSTEM. Wood laminate flooring and carpeting throughout. Very nice sized walk -in closets. Laundy room has full size washer and dryer space, freezer space, mud bench, folding table and cabinets. Master suite is separated from the other two bedrooms. Kitchen with large island, breakfast bar, pantry and lots of cabinets. Master bath has double vanity, large garden tub and separate shower. Extra bath has double vanity and tub and shower combo. Solar System included. Double car carport. Concrete drive and sidewalk. Front deck. NO HOA!

19. 2023-01-27
    listed $279,000 Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Beautiful and spacious manufactured home on 1 acre WITH SOLAR SYSTEM. Wood laminate flooring and carpeting throughout. Very nice sized walk -in closets. Laundy room has full size washer and dryer space, freezer space, mud bench, folding table and cabinets. Master suite is separated from the other two bedrooms. Kitchen with large island, breakfast bar, pantry and lots of cabinets. Master bath has double vanity, large garden tub and separate shower. Extra bath has double vanity and tub and shower combo. Solar System included. Double car carport. Concrete drive and sidewalk. Front deck. NO HOA!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,948 · $496/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,227/yr (+$352/mo · 245.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$1,720
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,331
• − Management: −$2,331
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$6,532
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,568
• After-tax cash flow: $786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maypearl ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829580
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,708
• Composite: 36.3/100
• National rank: #4697
• State rank: #325 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $325,000 NTREIS
• 2023-03-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-02-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-02-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-01-27 Listed $279,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,720 · -34.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.