506 Vera Cruz Ave · Novato, CA 94949

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 66 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition $149/sqft · 43% below area Est $218k · 43% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A great opportunity to own in Los Robles Mobile Home Park, and make it exactly what you've always wanted. A little TLC and some vision are all it takes to turn this 2 bed 1 bath home into something truly beautiful. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking to build equity, or someone who simply loves the satisfaction of a good renovation, this is the opportunity you've been waiting for. And the location? You couldn't ask for better. Tucked in the heart of Novato, CA, Los Robles puts you minutes from great restaurants, local shops, and easy freeway access. All the convenience of Marin County living at a price that actually makes sense. Sold as-is.

Key facts

• Easy freeway access
• Marin county living
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• LOS ROBLES MOBILE HOME PARK
• EASY FREEWAY ACCESS
• MARIN COUNTY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 2.4% in Novato — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#211 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Novato Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #160 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.64%
• DSCR: 3.12
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,558
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -42.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $62,828
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $147,288
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94949

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,852 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $1,390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	1125	$2,738	$2.43	1d	1	0.43mi
450 Entrada Dr Novato, CA	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,900	$2.83	10d	1	0.56mi
217 Deborah Ct Unit 1 Novato, CA	1.0	1.5	750	$2,250	$3.00	43d	1	1.23mi
1009 Green Oak Dr Novato, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	1d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $125,000 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    A great opportunity to own in Los Robles Mobile Home Park, and make it exactly what you've always wanted. A little TLC and some vision are all it takes to turn this 2 bed 1 bath home into something truly beautiful. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking to build equity, or someone who simply loves the satisfaction of a good renovation, this is the opportunity you've been waiting for. And the location? You couldn't ask for better. Tucked in the heart of Novato, CA, Los Robles puts you minutes from great restaurants, local shops, and easy freeway access. All the convenience of Marin County living at a price that actually makes sense. Sold as-is.

16. 2026-04-13
    listed $149,000 Active 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    A great opportunity to own in Los Robles Mobile Home Park, and make it exactly what you've always wanted. A little TLC and some vision are all it takes to turn this 2 bed 1 bath home into something truly beautiful. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking to build equity, or someone who simply loves the satisfaction of a good renovation, this is the opportunity you've been waiting for. And the location? You couldn't ask for better. Tucked in the heart of Novato, CA, Los Robles puts you minutes from great restaurants, local shops, and easy freeway access. All the convenience of Marin County living at a price that actually makes sense. Sold as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,738
• − Management: −$2,738
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $15,614
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,747
• After-tax cash flow: $12,928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home in Los Robles Mobile Home Park requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, and fresh paint to improve the interior and exterior. With some TLC, it has the potential to become a move-in-ready home with a great location.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen appliances — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom vanity — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets, countertops, and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both update bathroom vanity and fixtures — modernizing the bathroom will appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpeted flooring — new flooring will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen countertops · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen appliances · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom vanity · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$15,000–75,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets, countertops, and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both update bathroom vanity and fixtures — modernizing the bathroom will appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpeted flooring — new flooring will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Novato Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627720
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,396
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3576
• State rank: #160 of 517 in CA

Livability — Novato

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #6675

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Novato, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 59,522
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,787
• Household income: $120,758
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 16% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 5% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -670.06%
• Current HPI: 299.6555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-16.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $125,000 BAREIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $149,000 BAREIS