16 Northridge Rd · Burke, VT 05871

$88,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,638 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 396 Days on market

Built 1870 0.25 ac lot $54/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quaint 4 bedroom village home in need of love for Rehab. Nice village location with frontage on the West Branch of Passumpsic River with spring fed water and waterfront lot. Less than 10 minutes to Kingdom Trails Mt Biking, Burke Mt Ski Area, Willoughby & Crystal Lakes. Mixed hardwood, softwood, & carpet floors. Rehab & updating is needed as maintenance has been deferred for a while. This property will not qualify for FHA, VA, etc. loan programs. NETO Weatherized 2019. Being sold “As Is”.

Key facts

• Waterfront lot
• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1870

Tags

• WATERFRONT LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $627 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($608 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 396 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 396 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.76%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,274
• List price: $88,000
• Delta: -57.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $64,532
• Equity at exit: $54,403

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.45×
• Total profit: $158,920
• Equity at exit: $97,875

Cash invested: $24,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05871

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,644 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,292/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $627

Break-even live

Break-even rent $851

Max offer price $88,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $677	-5% $652	+0% $627	+5% $602	+10% $577
Rent	-10% $497	-5% $562	+0% $627	+5% $692	+10% $757
Rate	-1.0pp $671	-0.5pp $649	base $627	+0.5pp $604	+1.0pp $581

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,000
• Closing costs: $2,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $88,000 Active 396 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $88,000 Active 395 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $88,000 Active 393 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $88,000 Active 392 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,000 Active 391 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,000 Active 390 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,000 Active 389 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,000 Active 388 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $88,000 Active 387 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $88,000 Active 384 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $88,000 Active 383 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $88,000 Active 382 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $88,000 Active 381 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $88,000 Active 378 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $88,000 Active 377 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $88,000 Active 376 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,000 Active 375 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $88,000 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Quaint 4 bedroom village home in need of love for Rehab. Nice village location with frontage on the West Branch of Passumpsic River with spring fed water and waterfront lot. Less than 10 minutes to Kingdom Trails Mt Biking, Burke Mt Ski Area, Willoughby & Crystal Lakes. Mixed hardwood, softwood, & carpet floors. Rehab & updating is needed as maintenance has been deferred for a while. This property will not qualify for FHA, VA, etc. loan programs. NETO Weatherized 2019. Being sold “As Is”.

19. 2025-08-30
    price $89,000 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Quaint 4 bedroom village home in need of love for Rehab. Nice village location with frontage on the West Branch of Passumpsic River with spring fed water and waterfront lot. Less than 10 minutes to Kingdom Trails Mt Biking, Burke Mt Ski Area, Willoughby & Crystal Lakes. Mixed hardwood, softwood, & carpet floors. Rehab & updating is needed as maintenance has been deferred for a while. This property will not qualify for FHA, VA, etc. loan programs. NETO Weatherized 2019. Being sold “As Is”.

20. 2025-06-25
    price $99,000 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Quaint 4 bedroom village home in need of love for Rehab. Nice village location with frontage on the West Branch of Passumpsic River with spring fed water and waterfront lot. Less than 10 minutes to Kingdom Trails Mt Biking, Burke Mt Ski Area, Willoughby & Crystal Lakes. Mixed hardwood, softwood, & carpet floors. Rehab & updating is needed as maintenance has been deferred for a while. This property will not qualify for FHA, VA, etc. loan programs. NETO Weatherized 2019. Being sold “As Is”.

21. 2025-05-21
    listed $120,000 Active 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Quaint 4 bedroom village home in need of love for Rehab. Nice village location with frontage on the West Branch of Passumpsic River with spring fed water and waterfront lot. Less than 10 minutes to Kingdom Trails Mt Biking, Burke Mt Ski Area, Willoughby & Crystal Lakes. Mixed hardwood, softwood, & carpet floors. Rehab & updating is needed as maintenance has been deferred for a while. This property will not qualify for FHA, VA, etc. loan programs. NETO Weatherized 2019. Being sold “As Is”.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,482 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$190/yr (+$16/mo · 14.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,929
• − Property taxes: −$1,292
• − Insurance: −$1,238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,579
• − Management: −$1,579
• − Depreciation: −$2,560
• Taxable income: $6,557
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,574
• After-tax cash flow: $5,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Burke

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Burke, VT
• Population (ZIP): 1,369

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 6% German 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.84%
• Current HPI: 286.7647
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-26.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $88,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $89,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $99,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-05-21 Listed $120,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,292 · +16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.