1007 Forest Lake Dr · Lakeland, FL 33809

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 443 Days on market

Built 1979 4,500 sqft lot $292/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold "AS-IS" with right to inspect. Nice floor plan, roof over, big kitchen, "L" living/dining room. Located in 55+ community. Price includes land, no lot rent. Association fees include lawn mowed, water/sewer usage, cable tv, clubhouse, heated pool andmuch more. Lakeside Hills Estates is a charming community of manufactured homes on the shores of Lake Gibson, with community access. A deed restricted community, common grounds owned and managed by the members of the association. Home has roof over, longdriveway with room for a nice screened area. Laundry in utility room. Note: Mail boxes are curb side, no need to go to a central location, streets, sidewalks and street lighting city owned. In the city limits, close to everything, shopping, restaurants, medical facilities, churches all within four miles. About 1 mile from I-4 for easy access to Tampa or Orlando. A more affordable place to retire will be hard to find as you own the land so you don't pay lot rent. Must see to appreciate the community.

Key facts

• Natural lighting
• En suite bathroom
• Countertop space

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHTING
• COUNTERTOP SPACE
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• UPDATED ELECTRIC PANEL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total monthly fees $292; Total annual fees $3,504
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $292); HOA includes cable TV, pool, internet, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, sewer and water; Community clubhouse, fitness center, pool, shuffleboard, spa/hot tub; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed (max weight 25 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Home faces south; Residential property
• Construction: Membrane roof; Other construction materials; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide
• Exterior features: Storage; Pool (community/other)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $99k implies a 321% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.48%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,525
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $6,380
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,540 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,191/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$292
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,205

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4355 Corporate Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	872	$1,531	$1.76	10d	1	0.42mi
5233 US Highway 98 N Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,505	$1.89	2d	15	0.47mi
1567 Longbow Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	864	$1,195	$1.38	3d	1	0.48mi
1510 Galloway Oaks Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,376	$1.29	21d	8	0.49mi
5227 Grace St E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,775	$1.67	23d	1	0.52mi
733 Carpenters Way #37 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1307	$1,400	$1.07	19d	1	0.63mi
4500 Williamstown Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,508	$1.42	23d	1	0.71mi
1545 Kennedy Blvd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,682	$1.69	2d	24	0.72mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr #106 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1038	$1,700	$1.64	23d	1	0.72mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1083	$1,450	$1.34	14d	2	0.72mi
3939 Golf Village Loop Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,619	$1.84	3d	6	0.85mi
141 Fernery Rd Unit D1 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,160	$1.38	21d	1	1.03mi
6120 Burnett St Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,910	$1.91	3d	21	1.26mi
909 Shirley Ann Trl Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,460	$1.54	23d	1	1.29mi
308 W Crescent Dr Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	23d	1	1.31mi
6031 Crafton Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,125	$1.23	14d	1	1.34mi
6032 Norton Rd Unit 6032 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,295	$1.47	23d	1	1.34mi
5818 Bambi Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,200	$1.57	23d	1	1.37mi
6131 Doe Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,700	$1.26	14d	1	1.40mi
3685 Victoria Manor Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1154	$1,507	$1.31	3d	17	1.41mi
206 Mary Catherine Ct Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,725	$1.38	23d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $292 · $3,504/yr
• Likely covers: watersewercablelandscapingpool

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 437 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 436 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 435 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $99,000 Active 432 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 430 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    price $99,000 Active 429 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 429 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 428 DOM
14. 2026-01-28
    status Active
15. 2026-01-14
    status Pending
16. 2026-01-06
    price $110,000
17. 2025-12-08
    price $115,000
18. 2025-11-11
    price $118,000
19. 2025-04-28
    status Active
20. 2025-04-25
    status Pending
21. 2025-04-14
    price $125,000
22. 2025-03-12
    listed $135,000 Active
23. 2012-04-09
    soldstatus $23,500 1031-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1031 chars)

    Sold "AS-IS" with right to inspect. Nice floor plan, roof over, big kitchen, "L" living/dining room. Located in 55+ community. Price includes land, no lot rent. Association fees include lawn mowed, water/sewer usage, cable tv, clubhouse, heated pool andmuch more. Lakeside Hills Estates is a charming community of manufactured homes on the shores of Lake Gibson, with community access. A deed restricted community, common grounds owned and managed by the members of the association. Home has roof over, longdriveway with room for a nice screened area. Laundry in utility room. Note: Mail boxes are curb side, no need to go to a central location, streets, sidewalks and street lighting city owned. In the city limits, close to everything, shopping, restaurants, medical facilities, churches all within four miles. About 1 mile from I-4 for easy access to Tampa or Orlando. A more affordable place to retire will be hard to find as you own the land so you don't pay lot rent. Must see to appreciate the community.

24. 2011-08-10
    listed $27,900 1031-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1031 chars)

    Sold "AS-IS" with right to inspect. Nice floor plan, roof over, big kitchen, "L" living/dining room. Located in 55+ community. Price includes land, no lot rent. Association fees include lawn mowed, water/sewer usage, cable tv, clubhouse, heated pool andmuch more. Lakeside Hills Estates is a charming community of manufactured homes on the shores of Lake Gibson, with community access. A deed restricted community, common grounds owned and managed by the members of the association. Home has roof over, longdriveway with room for a nice screened area. Laundry in utility room. Note: Mail boxes are curb side, no need to go to a central location, streets, sidewalks and street lighting city owned. In the city limits, close to everything, shopping, restaurants, medical facilities, churches all within four miles. About 1 mile from I-4 for easy access to Tampa or Orlando. A more affordable place to retire will be hard to find as you own the land so you don't pay lot rent. Must see to appreciate the community.

25. 2008-04-04
    listed $46,500
26. 2007-08-10
    listed $59,900
27. 2007-06-15
    historical
28. 2007-03-29
    historical
29. 2007-03-29
    listed $59,900
30. 2006-11-03
    listed $67,500
31. 2004-03-03
    soldstatus $46,500
32. 1993-12-14
    soldstatus $36,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,191 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,191 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,191
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,479
• − Management: −$1,479
• − HOA: −$3,504
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,911
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$459
• After-tax cash flow: $2,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+199.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $118,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-12 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-09 Sold (MLS) $23,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-10 Listed $27,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-04 Listed $46,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-10 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-29 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-03 Listed $67,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
• 1993-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $36,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,191 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.