Dinero Plan · Cove, TX 77523

$317,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,285 sqft · SingleFamily · 558 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A great home for growing families, the Dinero plan features plenty of space for everyday living and entertaining guests. The study with French doors flanks the front door foyer area, and an island kitchen opens to the café and gathering room. The private owner's suite has dual bathroom vanities and an oversized walk-in closet. The upstairs boasts 3 bedrooms and a loft for the kid's play space.

Key facts

• Loft for play space
• Island kitchen
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• STUDY WITH FRENCH DOORS
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• LOFT FOR PLAY SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $317,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $328,580.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $318k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1018 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 40d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 558 days — a 12% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,846 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 558 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.18%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,580
• List price: $317,990
• Delta: -3.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6710 Alejandro Pl	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,300 (+1%)	3mo	$354,040	$154	88
6719 Camila St	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,466 (+8%)	2mo	$322,170	$131	79
6718 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,080 (-9%)	1mo	$345,990	$166	68
2010 Caroline Ave	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,374 (+4%)	3mo	$474,900	$200	65
6714 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-11%)	2mo	$325,990	$161	64
14407 Sweet Water Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,251 (-2%)	2mo	$342,900	$152	61
5926 Golden Cove Rd	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,326 (+2%)	2mo	$269,000	$116	60
6918 Bens Lndg	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,536 (+11%)	2mo	$319,440	$126	59
6703 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.32mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,576 (+13%)	2mo	$375,990	$146	57
6730 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.32mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,587 (+13%)	3mo	$369,990	$143	56
1711 Caroline Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,432 (+6%)	2mo	$434,900	$179	53
102 Pacific Way	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,029 (-11%)	2mo	$314,530	$155	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-72,582
• Equity at exit: $48,992

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-85,014
• Equity at exit: $28,410

Cash invested: $92,002 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 75 active · 42 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.8 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $347,000 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 58 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 1018
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,468 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,723
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,929/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,874

Max offer price $282,181

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-94	-5% $-207	+0% $-321	+5% $-434	+10% $-548
Rent	-10% $-516	-5% $-418	+0% $-321	+5% $-223	+10% $-126
Rate	-1.0pp $-155	-0.5pp $-237	base $-321	+0.5pp $-406	+1.0pp $-492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,145
• Closing costs: $9,857
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	139d	1	0.65mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	97d	1	0.66mi
5914 Treasure Cove Rd Cove, TX	3.0	3.0	2042	$1,645	$0.81	10d	1	0.74mi
15214 Harlin Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2139	$2,400	$1.12	75d	1	0.86mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	54d	1	0.89mi
15218 Arnold Cove, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	38d	1	0.96mi
5727 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$2,036	$1.08	39d	1	1.04mi
8411 Hannah Rd Cove, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,236	$0.96	39d	1	1.12mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,036	$1.00	10d	1	1.13mi
14143 Medina Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,495	$1.19	33d	1	1.19mi
14114 Little River Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2771	$2,645	$0.95	82d	1	1.22mi
5142 Cotton Lake Rd Cove, TX	5.0	2.0	2432	$1,975	$0.81	7d	1	1.28mi
50A Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	5.0	2.0	2432	$1,975	$0.81	67d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $317,990 Active 558 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $317,990 Active 557 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $317,990 Active 556 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $317,990 Active 555 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $317,990 Active 554 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $317,990 Active 553 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $317,990 Active 552 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $317,990 Active 551 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $317,990 Active 550 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $317,990 Active 549 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $317,990 Active 548 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $317,990 Active 547 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $317,990 Active 546 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $317,990 Active 540 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $317,990 Active 539 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $317,990 Active 537 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $317,990 Active 535 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $317,990 Active 533 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $317,990 Active 532 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $317,990 Active 531 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $317,990 Active 529 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $317,990 Active 528 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $317,990 Active 527 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $317,990 Active 526 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $317,990 Active 525 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $317,990 Active 524 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $317,990 Active 523 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $317,990 Active 522 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $317,990 Active 521 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $317,990 Active 520 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $317,990 Active 519 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $317,990 Active 518 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $317,990 Active 517 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $317,990 Active 516 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $317,990 Active 515 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $317,990 Active 514 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $317,990 Active 513 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $317,990 Active 512 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $317,990 Active 510 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $317,990 Active 509 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $317,990 Active 508 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $317,990 Active 507 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $317,990 Active 504 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $317,990 Active 502 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $317,990 Active 501 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $317,990 Active 499 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $317,990 Active 497 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $317,990 Active 496 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $317,990 Active 495 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $317,990 Active 494 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,406
• − Property taxes: −$4,929
• − Insurance: −$1,643
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,370
• − Management: −$2,370
• − Depreciation: −$9,559
• Taxable loss: −$9,654
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,317
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, good exterior, and well-maintained landscaping. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can attract more renters ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

---

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $317,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $315,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $327,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-15 Listed $324,990 Zillow