9223 Burch Eagle Ct · Baytown, TX 77521

$206,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,311 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $167/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $206,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,552.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $207k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-473 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Walker El (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 829 students, 66% FRL); E F Green Junior School (1,020 students, 67% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 791 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,001 (4.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.48%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,552
• List price: $206,990
• Delta: -23.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9214 Burch Eagle Ct	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,311 (0%)	0mo	$246,990	$188	99
9207 Burch Eagle Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,311 (0%)	0mo	$205,340	$157	99
9227 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,311 (0%)	3mo	$244,990	$187	97
9503 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-1%)	1mo	$269,990	$207	93
9214 Speckled Trout Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-1%)	3mo	$271,990	$209	90
9203 Speckled Trout Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-1%)	4mo	$273,990	$210	87
9211 Burch Eagle Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	0mo	$205,990	$141	79
9222 Burch Eagle Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	1mo	$255,590	$176	59
9235 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	2mo	$255,990	$176	58
9239 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	2mo	$259,990	$178	57
9223 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	3mo	$259,990	$178	56
9026 Artic Rockfish Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	5mo	$253,990	$175	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-76,786
• Equity at exit: $40,340

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-116,950
• Equity at exit: $23,392

Cash invested: $75,754 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 35 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.0 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $236,990 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 52 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +23.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 791
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,980 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,058/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$167
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,578

Max offer price $202,178

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-286	-5% $-379	+0% $-473	+5% $-566	+10% $-659
Rent	-10% $-629	-5% $-551	+0% $-473	+5% $-394	+10% $-316
Rate	-1.0pp $-336	-0.5pp $-404	base $-473	+0.5pp $-543	+1.0pp $-614

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,638
• Closing costs: $8,117
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5130 Red Drum Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,050	$1.35	0d	1	0.25mi
6019 Standpiper Loop Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,125	$1.28	4d	1	0.70mi
8814 Bar Harbor Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,896	$1.13	73d	1	0.86mi
4730 Black Rock St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,973	$1.28	20d	1	0.86mi
9214 Burnet Fields Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,801	$1.23	93d	1	0.87mi
4151 Saw Mill Peak Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1619	$1,951	$1.21	7d	1	0.87mi
8110 Berkely Ct Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,946	$1.06	54d	1	0.90mi
8002 Sesame St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,100	$1.15	67d	1	1.08mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association (ACMI) with annual fee of $2,000

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story (living spaces on first floor)Built in 2026
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floorAdditional bedrooms on first floor
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen open to family roomSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $206,990 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $206,990 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $206,990 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $206,990 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $206,990 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $206,990 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $206,990 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   pricedays on market $206,990 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $225,990 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $225,990 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $225,990 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $225,990 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    pricestatusdays on market $225,990 Active 12 DOM

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

14. 2026-07-03
    statusdays on market $215,990 Pending 11 DOM

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

15. 2026-07-02
    days on market $215,990 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-07-01
    days on market $215,990 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-06-30
    days on market $215,990 Active 8 DOM
18. 2026-06-29
    days on market $215,990 Active 7 DOM
19. 2026-06-28
    days on market $215,990 Active 6 DOM
20. 2026-06-27
    days on market $215,990 Active 5 DOM
21. 2026-06-26
    days on market $215,990 Active 4 DOM
22. 2026-06-24
    days on market $215,990 Active 2 DOM
23. 2026-06-22
    remarks 635-char remark
24. 2026-06-22
    pricelisting id $215,990 Active 1 DOM
25. 2026-06-22
    remarks 414-char remark
26. 2026-06-22
    listed $244,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,155
• − Property taxes: −$4,058
• − Insurance: −$1,353
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − HOA: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$7,871
• Taxable loss: −$10,482
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,516
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,555–$19,665 screening

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan and is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Upgrades in paint, flooring, and smart home features can significantly increase its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and add value to the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the home. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Victoria Walker El F TX #1,462/4,322 Nat'l #19,009/41,679 Middle E F Green Junior School High Goose Creek Memorial F TX #924/1,632 Nat'l #9,347/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association (ACMI) with annual fee of $2,000

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story (living spaces on first floor)Built in 2026
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floorAdditional bedrooms on first floor
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen open to family roomSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-21 Price Changed $225,990 Zillow
• 2026-07-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-07-21 Price Changed $225,990 HARMLS
• 2026-07-19 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-07-19 Price Changed $205,990 Zillow
• 2026-07-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-07-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-23 Price Changed $215,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-22 Listed $215,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-21 Listed $244,990 Zillow