10129 Whistling Pne Ct · Jacksonville, FL 32221

$244,390

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2,178 sqft lot Est $286k · 15% under $195/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience this newly constructed Landmark townhome featuring a classic traditional exterior and a thoughtfully designed layout. Offering 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and an open-concept floor plan, this home is perfectly suited for both daily living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances--including an electric range, dishwasher, and microwave--complemented by rich Sarsaparilla cabinetry, elegant quartz countertops, a walk-in pantry, and a large center island that opens seamlessly to the gathering room and café area. From the main living space, step outside to your private patio or head upstairs to a flexible loft, with all bedrooms conveniently locat

Key facts

• $195 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Tags

• CLASSIC TRADITIONAL EXTERIOR
• THOUGHTFULLY DESIGNED LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• RICH SARSAPARILLA CABINETRY
• ELEGANT QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $244k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal Springs Elementary School (math 51% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 907 students, 66% FRL); Edward H. White High School (math 31% / reading 25%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,538 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 49% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $195,973 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,118
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1945 River Rock Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+5%)	0mo	$249,000	$158	76
9852 Sailor Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+3%)	2mo	$293,000	$191	72
2059 Blair Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+1%)	11mo	$255,000	$168	70
1866 McGirts Point Blvd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+3%)	6mo	$245,000	$158	67
2172 Rothbury Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+1%)	7mo	$289,900	$191	64
10404 Rothbury Dr S	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,518 (+1%)	8mo	$320,000	$211	64
2411 Paris Mill Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+4%)	2mo	$278,000	$179	64
10231 Normandy Cove St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,563 (+4%)	9mo	$243,225	$156	62
10251 Driftwood Hills Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,563 (+4%)	13mo	$300,000	$192	62
2506 Shelby Creek Rd W	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+5%)	6mo	$259,000	$164	50
1986 Carter Landing Blvd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-10%)	4mo	$260,000	$192	44
1800 Carter Landing Blvd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-10%)	5mo	$262,000	$194	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-47,390
• Equity at exit: $36,439

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-56,010
• Equity at exit: $21,130

Cash invested: $68,429 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32221

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,960 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,282
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $781/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$195
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,080

Max offer price $227,555

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,098
• Closing costs: $7,332
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2120 Blair Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,675	$1.32	23d	1	0.37mi
2081 Chaffee Rd S #19 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,619	$1.41	23d	1	0.80mi
2081 Chaffee Rd S #72 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$1,309	$1.08	23d	1	0.81mi
10161 Meadow Pointe Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,035	$1.12	16d	1	1.05mi
2167 Kistlers Ridge Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,900	$1.30	14d	1	1.24mi
9183 Raptor Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,724	$1.58	4d	1	1.28mi
2210 Kistlers Ridge Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,846	$1.27	23d	1	1.30mi
9101 Normandy Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	994	$1,629	$1.64	3d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $195 · $2,340/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $244,390 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $781 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,028 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,248/yr (+$104/mo · 159.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,690
• − Property taxes: −$781
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,881
• − Management: −$1,881
• − HOA: −$2,340
• − Depreciation: −$7,110
• Taxable loss: −$5,388
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,293
• After-tax cash flow: $149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This newly constructed townhome is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a good curb appeal. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,833
• Household income: $82,969
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 516.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.74%
• Current HPI: 263.7591
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.12%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $244,390 realMLS