8738 Robilina Rd · Jasmine Estates, FL 34668

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,253 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1978 7,200 sqft lot Est $258k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. NOT IN FLOOD ZONE!!!!NO HOA!!!! SUPER NICE HOME IN AN OVERSIZED CORNER LOT WITH LOTS OF SHADE TREES / R. V. SET UP IN THE REAR YARD WITH 30 AMP ELECTRIC & CONCRETE RUNNERS & SEWER DRAIN PLUS FRESH WATER TOO. (LARGE ENOUGH FOR A 32 FT MOTOR HOME) OR USE IT FOR LARGE BOAT STORAGE. 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME, NICE FLOORPLAN.

Key facts

• Oversized corner lot
• Concrete runners
• Sewer drain

Tags

• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• R V SET UP
• 30 AMP ELECTRIC
• CONCRETE RUNNERS
• SEWER DRAIN
• FRESH WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.7% in Jasmine Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#555 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 577 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,876/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 2699% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $180k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.35%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,118
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8738 Robilina Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,253 (0%)	1mo	$190,000	$152	99
8634 Velvet Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,208 (-4%)	1mo	$219,000	$181	80
6318 Ridge Crest Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,191 (-5%)	3mo	$261,000	$219	79
8929 Sterling Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,307 (+4%)	0mo	$285,000	$218	74
8825 Lido Ln	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (+8%)	2mo	$285,000	$211	68
9041 Lido Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+7%)	1mo	$289,000	$215	66
9300 W Cochise Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,187 (-5%)	1mo	$239,900	$202	63
9240 Sterling Ln	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-2%)	2mo	$175,000	$142	61
6338 Nashua Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+12%)	3mo	$269,900	$192	60
9105 Ledgestone Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,362 (+9%)	2mo	$280,000	$206	60
9030 Pegasus Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+14%)	3mo	$217,900	$153	57
6811 Kingstree Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+10%)	1mo	$315,000	$228	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-17,997
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,748
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 577
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,876 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,866/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,591

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8729 Sabal Way Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1807	$2,015	$1.12	5d	1	0.07mi
8712 Roble Way Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,841	$1.62	24d	1	0.09mi
8540 Robilina Rd Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	722	$1,432	$1.98	3d	14	0.22mi
9035 Cochise Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1095	$1,395	$1.27	15d	1	0.36mi
6431 Citation Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1009	$1,681	$1.67	5d	1	0.37mi
7125 Sandalwood Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1324	$1,681	$1.27	5d	1	0.57mi
8356 Journet Blvd Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	843	$1,315	$1.56	24d	1	0.58mi
9304 Saint Regis Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1356	$1,550	$1.14	22d	1	0.61mi
9136 Lometa Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1574	$1,795	$1.14	18d	1	0.66mi
7034 Coral Reef Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,795	$1.35	24d	1	0.71mi
9425 Saint Regis Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$1,700	$1.23	24d	1	0.73mi
8030 Gabriel Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,025	$1.35	5d	1	0.79mi
6935 Twilite Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,450	$1.41	17d	1	0.79mi
7318 Vienna Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1530	$1,841	$1.20	20d	1	0.86mi
5719 Mercado Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	3.0	1864	$2,080	$1.12	24d	1	0.91mi
8647 Candida Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	3.0	1864	$2,080	$1.12	18d	1	0.91mi
7435 San Miguel Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1136	$1,500	$1.32	20d	1	0.92mi
5703 Mercado Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	3.0	1864	$2,080	$1.12	24d	1	0.92mi
5695 Mercado Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	3.0	1864	$2,080	$1.12	24d	1	0.93mi
8660 Castillian Way Port Richey, FL	3.0	3.0	1864	$2,080	$1.12	24d	1	0.93mi
5688 Marbella Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.5	1516	$1,849	$1.22	24d	1	0.94mi
5712 Bay Blvd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,900	$1.56	24d	1	0.95mi
7205 Moravian Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,845	$1.22	20d	1	0.95mi
5706 Bay Blvd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,950	$1.37	13d	1	0.95mi
7501 San Moritz Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,600	$1.13	24d	1	0.96mi
9741 Scenic Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,800	$1.44	4d	1	0.99mi
5701 Berlin Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,745	$1.28	24d	1	1.00mi
7301 Moravian Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,806	$1.36	5d	1	1.00mi
5616 Mercado Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	3.0	1864	$2,080	$1.12	24d	1	1.01mi
9130 Chatam Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1212	$1,623	$1.34	22d	1	1.02mi
9211 Chatam Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,215	$1.88	20d	1	1.02mi
5573 Mercado Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	3.0	1864	$2,080	$1.12	24d	1	1.02mi
5568 Mercado Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	3.0	1864	$2,030	$1.09	22d	1	1.04mi
9141 Suffolk Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,785	$1.18	24d	1	1.05mi
6920 Tierra Verde St Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,850	$1.25	24d	1	1.05mi
9202 Suffolk Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,450	$1.40	24d	1	1.07mi
9202 Suffolk Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,450	$1.40	15d	1	1.07mi
6430 Lomand Ave New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	952	$1,550	$1.63	24d	1	1.08mi
9826 Pocono St Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,650	$1.54	24d	1	1.09mi
9981 Eagles Point Cir #4 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$1,850	$1.40	24d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $179,900 Active
3. 2014-11-23
   historical
4. 2014-11-19
   price $46,840
5. 2014-10-17
   listed $51,940 Active
6. 2010-09-08
   historical
7. 2010-05-24
   listed $50,000
8. 2010-05-07
   historical
9. 2010-02-23
   listed $55,000
10. 2004-08-03
    soldstatus $99,900
11. 2004-07-23
    soldstatus $99,900
12. 2004-06-25
    historical
13. 2004-06-20
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,866 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,866 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,866
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,801
• − Management: −$1,801
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$168
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$40
• After-tax cash flow: $2,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jasmine Estates

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #10561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasmine Estates, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+80.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-19 Price Changed $46,840 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-17 Listed $51,940 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-24 Listed $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-23 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $99,900 Public Records
• 2004-07-23 Sold (MLS) $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-20 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,866 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.