16323 Peach Orchard Dr · Atascocita, TX 77396

$170,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,818 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1997 6,899 sqft lot Est $293k · 42% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom 2 bathroom home with a 2-car garage in a nice quiet neighborhood Atascocita Forest! Bedroom wings with 2 spare bedrooms and full bathroom in hall, private office space and formal dining room off entry foyer. Kitchen features granite countertops and stainless steel appliances including microwave, dishwasher and gas range. Living room with built in fireplace available. Primary bedroom towards the back of the home for privacy. Fenced in yard with patio area available. Move in ready!

Key facts

• Drywall repairs
• New kitchen cabinets
• 6,899 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• REPLACEMENT OF FLOORING
• INTERIOR EXTERIOR PAINTING
• REPLACEMENT OF VANITIES
• DRYWALL REPAIRS
• INTERIOR DOORS REPLACEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whispering Pines El (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 697 students, 77% FRL); Humble Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 1,382 students, 81% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 32% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Humble ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $170k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.02%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,698
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16322 Mango Ridge Ct	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,830 (+1%)	5mo	$315,000	$172	94
3906 Cyril Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,837 (+1%)	4mo	$240,000	$131	90
16319 Great Frst	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,789 (-2%)	4mo	$310,000	$173	88
3718 Woodlace Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,673 (-8%)	1mo	$269,000	$161	69
16847 Williams Gully Trl	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (+9%)	4mo	$449,900	$227	66
3914 Village Well Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,921 (+6%)	2mo	$259,335	$135	65
3762 Woodlace Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,013 (+11%)	5mo	$269,000	$134	65
16834 Williams Gully Trl	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,026 (+11%)	4mo	$399,900	$197	61
16623 Yaklin Meadow Ct	0.56mi	4/3.0	1,942 (+7%)	4mo	$399,900	$206	55
17306 Huntersglen Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,976 (+9%)	4mo	$260,000	$132	53
3231 Barton Sky Ln	0.68mi	4/2.5	1,949 (+7%)	5mo	$259,900	$133	50
17403 Glenhew Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,976 (+9%)	5mo	$279,999	$142	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-25,943
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-35,999
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77396

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,153 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$578 /mo · $6,942/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,001

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3623 Village Grove Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,709	$1.22	17d	1	0.46mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 15984 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,134	$1.42	10d	1	0.66mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 3112 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,102	$1.40	3d	1	0.66mi
15957 Woodland Hills Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,200	$1.46	43d	1	0.67mi
15863 Kinlough Dr Humble, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1326	$2,518	$1.90	3d	16	0.83mi
11942 California Sister Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	24d	1	0.85mi
3818 Oaktrace Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	43d	1	0.87mi
15713 Saxton Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1643	$2,858	$1.74	1d	36	0.91mi
17834 Yellow Birch Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,646	$1.07	43d	1	1.02mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,326	$0.99	5d	1	1.05mi
18018 Heron Forest Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,939	$1.08	24d	1	1.09mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,236	$0.96	4d	1	1.14mi
19100 Woodland Hills Dr Humble, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,665	$1.60	2d	10	1.15mi
10534 Fire Sage Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	1460	$1,921	$1.32	12d	1	1.16mi
10338 Whisper Bluff Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,819	$1.09	3d	1	1.35mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	5d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 21 events

1. 2025-10-08
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-11
   listed $170,000 Active
3. 2025-05-31
   historical
4. 2025-03-10
   price $290,000
5. 2024-11-10
   listed $299,000 Active
6. 2022-05-11
   soldstatus
7. 2022-05-10
   soldstatus Sold 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   4 bedroom 2 bathroom home with a 2-car garage in a nice quiet neighborhood Atascocita Forest! Bedroom wings with 2 spare bedrooms and full bathroom in hall, private office space and formal dining room off entry foyer. Kitchen features granite countertops and stainless steel appliances including microwave, dishwasher and gas range. Living room with built in fireplace available. Primary bedroom towards the back of the home for privacy. Fenced in yard with patio area available. Move in ready!

8. 2022-04-06
   status Pending 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   4 bedroom 2 bathroom home with a 2-car garage in a nice quiet neighborhood Atascocita Forest! Bedroom wings with 2 spare bedrooms and full bathroom in hall, private office space and formal dining room off entry foyer. Kitchen features granite countertops and stainless steel appliances including microwave, dishwasher and gas range. Living room with built in fireplace available. Primary bedroom towards the back of the home for privacy. Fenced in yard with patio area available. Move in ready!

9. 2022-03-28
   status Active 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   4 bedroom 2 bathroom home with a 2-car garage in a nice quiet neighborhood Atascocita Forest! Bedroom wings with 2 spare bedrooms and full bathroom in hall, private office space and formal dining room off entry foyer. Kitchen features granite countertops and stainless steel appliances including microwave, dishwasher and gas range. Living room with built in fireplace available. Primary bedroom towards the back of the home for privacy. Fenced in yard with patio area available. Move in ready!

10. 2022-02-17
    status Pending, Continue to Show 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bathroom home with a 2-car garage in a nice quiet neighborhood Atascocita Forest! Bedroom wings with 2 spare bedrooms and full bathroom in hall, private office space and formal dining room off entry foyer. Kitchen features granite countertops and stainless steel appliances including microwave, dishwasher and gas range. Living room with built in fireplace available. Primary bedroom towards the back of the home for privacy. Fenced in yard with patio area available. Move in ready!

11. 2022-01-24
    listed $269,900 Active 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bathroom home with a 2-car garage in a nice quiet neighborhood Atascocita Forest! Bedroom wings with 2 spare bedrooms and full bathroom in hall, private office space and formal dining room off entry foyer. Kitchen features granite countertops and stainless steel appliances including microwave, dishwasher and gas range. Living room with built in fireplace available. Primary bedroom towards the back of the home for privacy. Fenced in yard with patio area available. Move in ready!

12. 2022-01-03
    soldstatus
13. 2016-03-14
    soldstatus
14. 2013-11-04
    historical
15. 2013-11-04
    soldstatus
16. 2013-11-01
    soldstatus Sold
17. 2013-09-28
    status Pending, Continue to Show
18. 2013-09-13
    status Option Pending
19. 2013-09-04
    listed $133,500 Active
20. 2008-07-31
    soldstatus
21. 1997-12-01
    soldstatus $89,160

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,942 · $578/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,942 · $578/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$6,942
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$250
• After-tax cash flow: $1,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 61,735
• Household income: $78,169
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Black 29% Two or more races 19% White 19% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 37% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.66%
• Current HPI: 243.7012
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+90.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-10 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-04-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-02-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-24 Listed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2022-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-11-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-11-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-09-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-09-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-09-04 Listed $133,500 HARMLS
• 2008-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $89,160 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,942 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.