1864 Timberlane Rd · Milledgeville, GA 31061

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,525 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1979 0.29 ac lot $118/sqft · 16% below area Est $215k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Here is your chance to get into one of Milledgeville's most desirable neighborhoods at a price that provides real value. Nestled in the established Carrington Woods community, this All-Brick, 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is priced right and is ready for an owner occupant or an investor who wants a great home with a little sweat equity. With over 1,500 +/- square feet of living space, the layout gives you room to breathe. A separate living room, family room, and dining room provide flexibility for the way real families actually live. The home needs a little TLC. Think fresh paint, new carpet, and a master bathroom refresh, which means the bones are solid and at this price, the opportunity is real.

Key facts

• Fenced backyard
• 0.29 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing marketed as cash or conventional purchase; Special conditions: Agent owned, agent/seller relationship, sold as-is, currently a rental
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with space for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water available; Public sewer (sewer connected); Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Resale property; Subdivision: Carrington Woods
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 1979; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Other exterior features; Back yard fencing (chain link, fenced); Level, private lot; Grassed and partially wooded vegetation

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Fireplace in family room (1)
• Interior features: Split bedroom plan; Den; Family room; Laundry area; Separate dining room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in kitchen and laundry closet; Additional utility/other space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.9% in Milledgeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#134 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (town): math 13% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #152 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Primary (835 students, 89% FRL); Oak Hill Ms (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #372 of 470 statewide, top 80%, 986 students, 89% FRL); Baldwin High School (math 10% / reading 21%, grade F, #290 of 424 statewide, top 69%, 1,311 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 72% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 202 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $180k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,291 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.96%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,292
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -16.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1835 Audobon Rd NE	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,521 (-0%)	8mo	$180,000	$118	89
1751 Holly Hill Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+3%)	2mo	$225,000	$144	82
1954 Twin Oaks Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-5%)	3mo	$150,000	$104	72
1880 Timberlane Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-10%)	13mo	$217,000	$157	69
1760 Holly Hill Rd	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,441 (-6%)	11mo	$185,000	$128	66
271 Lakeside Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+2%)	5mo	$167,500	$107	66
1750 Elmwood Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-6%)	8mo	$160,000	$112	65
261 Lakeside Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+5%)	3mo	$203,000	$127	64
1784 Cedarwood Rd	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,667 (+9%)	4mo	$185,000	$111	53
2288 Leo Ct	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,310 (-14%)	3mo	$98,000	$75	50
2290 Prince Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-15%)	13mo	$226,000	$174	41
1949 Karen Cir	0.56mi	4/4.0 (+1)	1,716 (+12%)	3mo	$250,000	$146	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-35,675
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-35,435
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31061

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,323 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,811/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $157,959

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-22	-5% $-73	+0% $-124	+5% $-175	+10% $-226
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-176	+0% $-124	+5% $-72	+10% $-20
Rate	-1.0pp $-34	-0.5pp $-78	base $-124	+0.5pp $-171	+1.0pp $-218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1985 Briarcliff Rd Unit A2 Milledgeville, GA	2.0	2.5	1380	$1,249	$0.91	44d	1	0.33mi
1753 Cedarwood Rd Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.0	1740	$1,800	$1.03	44d	1	0.42mi
1820 N Ridge Dr Unit A Milledgeville, GA	2.0	2.0	1200	$975	$0.81	44d	1	0.46mi
1920 Karen Cir Milledgeville, GA	2.0	2.0	1125	$985	$0.88	44d	1	0.51mi
2233 Leo Ct Milledgeville, GA	3.0	1.5	1275	$1,300	$1.02	44d	1	0.61mi
110 Waverly Cir Milledgeville, GA	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,249	$1.04	21d	1	0.97mi
436 Whistle Way Milledgeville, GA	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,249	$1.00	44d	1	1.02mi
411 Whistle Way Milledgeville, GA	2.0	2.5	1300	$1,249	$0.96	44d	1	1.02mi
391 Whistle Way Milledgeville, GA	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,249	$1.04	44d	1	1.04mi
387 Whistle Way Milledgeville, GA	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,249	$1.04	44d	1	1.05mi
367 Whistle Way Milledgeville, GA	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,249	$1.04	44d	1	1.07mi
365 Whistle Way Milledgeville, GA	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,249	$1.04	44d	1	1.07mi
250 Whistle Way Milledgeville, GA	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	21d	1	1.12mi
189 Cobblestone Park Dr Milledgeville, GA	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,295	$1.08	21d	1	1.42mi
825 Matheson Rd Milledgeville, GA	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,100	$0.85	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,900 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    listed $179,900 New 1052-char remark
18. 2014-09-29
    soldstatus $83,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,811 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,811 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,811
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,270
• − Management: −$1,270
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$4,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,125
• After-tax cash flow: $-366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 1300210
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,615
• Composite: 13.61/100
• National rank: #9508
• State rank: #152 of 174 in GA

Livability — Milledgeville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #9206

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milledgeville, GA
• County: Baldwin County · 41,764 people
• City population: 41,764
• Metro: Milledgeville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,764
• Household income: $54,263
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1630.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,602 people
• By 2030: 45,481 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 44,310 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 42,129 · -7.6%
• By 2075: 36,819 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 29,320 · -35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 43% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.8pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+1.3 2016: D+1.7 2012: D+5.5 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.16%
• Current HPI: 241.3758
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Milledgeville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+116.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $179,900 GAMLS
• 2014-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,811 · +45.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.