Blake Plan · Willis, TX 77378

$156,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily · 714 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

It is our pleasure to introduce to you the Blake/816B floor plan, located in the new William Trails community! This single-story house spans 816 square feet and holds two bedrooms and one bathroom. Upon entering the home, you arrive in the family room, dining room, and L-shaped kitchen. This is an open concept living and dining space, making this house perfect for hosting family or friends. The kitchen is equipped with stainless-steel appliances, a bright window facing the front of the home, vinyl flooring, and pretty countertops. The bright windows in this section of the home makes the space inviting and comfortable to all who enter. A hallway branches away from the dining room, leading to the bathroom, utility room, secondary bedroom, and primary bedroom. The bathroom features vinyl flooring and a tub/shower combo while the utility room has vinyl floors and provides space for a washer, dryer, and some storage. The location of the utility room in the house makes it accessible to each of the bedrooms, making laundry chores a breeze! While the secondary bedroom is finished with carpet flooring, a tall closet, and a window facing the side of the property, the primary bedroom in comparison is a bit larger than the secondary bedroom and has a bright window facing the back of the home. Each bedroom is bathed in natural light, adding to the comfort and tranquility each room provides. Exiting the home through the back patio, which is equipped with overhead lights and a place to r

Key facts

• Listed 714 days

🏗️ New construction. The $156,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $159,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $157k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($164/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edward B Cannan El (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 672 students, 74% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 721 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 714 days — a 12% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $138,151 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 714 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.37%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,490
• List price: $156,990
• Delta: -1.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11911 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/1.0	816 (0%)	2mo	$149,990	$184	98
11931 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/1.0	816 (0%)	4mo	$139,890	$171	96
11955 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/1.0	816 (0%)	4mo	$149,990	$184	96
11922 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	0mo	$154,990	$191	94
11947 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	2mo	$158,990	$196	93
11939 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	2mo	$154,990	$191	93
11930 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	2mo	$159,990	$197	93
11907 Detar Ct	0.01mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	2mo	$153,990	$189	93
14538 William Trails Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	816 (0%)	6mo	$144,990	$178	93
14546 William Trails Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	1mo	$144,990	$178	92
14594 William Trails Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	7mo	$156,990	$193	83
12046 William Trails Circle Cir	0.21mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	9mo	$163,990	$202	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-27,766
• Equity at exit: $23,780

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-34,058
• Equity at exit: $13,790

Cash invested: $44,657 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$836
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,392/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,395

Max offer price $159,490

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $69	+0% $14	+5% $-41	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $-42	+0% $14	+5% $69	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $54	base $14	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,872
• Closing costs: $4,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14626 New Village Dr Willis, TX	2.0	2.0	813	$1,300	$1.60	0d	1	0.20mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $156,990 Active 714 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $156,990 Active 711 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $156,990 Active 710 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $156,990 Active 709 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $156,990 Active 708 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $156,990 Active 706 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $156,990 Active 702 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $156,990 Active 701 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $156,990 Active 700 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $156,990 Active 697 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $156,990 Active 696 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $156,990 Active 695 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $156,990 Active 694 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $156,990 Active 693 DOM
15. 2024-07-07
    listed $156,990 Active 1497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1497 chars)

    It is our pleasure to introduce to you the Blake/816B floor plan, located in the new William Trails community! This single-story house spans 816 square feet and holds two bedrooms and one bathroom. Upon entering the home, you arrive in the family room, dining room, and L-shaped kitchen. This is an open concept living and dining space, making this house perfect for hosting family or friends. The kitchen is equipped with stainless-steel appliances, a bright window facing the front of the home, vinyl flooring, and pretty countertops. The bright windows in this section of the home makes the space inviting and comfortable to all who enter. A hallway branches away from the dining room, leading to the bathroom, utility room, secondary bedroom, and primary bedroom. The bathroom features vinyl flooring and a tub/shower combo while the utility room has vinyl floors and provides space for a washer, dryer, and some storage. The location of the utility room in the house makes it accessible to each of the bedrooms, making laundry chores a breeze! While the secondary bedroom is finished with carpet flooring, a tall closet, and a window facing the side of the property, the primary bedroom in comparison is a bit larger than the secondary bedroom and has a bright window facing the back of the home. Each bedroom is bathed in natural light, adding to the comfort and tranquility each room provides. Exiting the home through the back patio, which is equipped with overhead lights and a place to r

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,934
• − Property taxes: −$2,392
• − Insurance: −$797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,356
• − Management: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$4,640
• Taxable loss: −$2,525
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$606
• After-tax cash flow: $770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. Fresh paint and trimming the landscaping would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Rental Trim landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves rental appeal and tenant satisfaction.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Trim landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves rental appeal and tenant satisfaction. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-07-07 Listed $156,990 Zillow