18717 Mill Villa Rd # 235 #235 · Jamestown, CA 95327

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $95k · 43% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Surrender yourself to the elegance of this remodeled single-level ranch style mobil home in beautiful Mill, Villa Estates. This well-designed two bedroom two bath home is located on a pleasant, quiet street where the only sounds are of nature. Richly appointed, with an open floor plan, vaulted ceiling, central heat. Here is a real storybook home, with all the elegant sense of warmth and charm you expect. Senior living community 55 and older. This immaculate home is one of the most desirable locations directly across the street from the clubhouse, swimming pool and Hot tub etc. The exterior features newer low maintenance deck, landscaping and an attached over sized two car carport with shed,

Key facts

• Central heat
• Open floor plan
• Vaulted ceiling

Tags

• REMODELED SINGLE-LEVEL RANCH
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILING
• CENTRAL HEAT
• NEWER LOW MAINTENANCE DECK
• ATTACHED OVER SIZED CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park: Mill Villa Mobile Home Park; Community clubhouse; Community pool and spa; Recreation facilities; Pets allowed (cats and dogs allowed, may require approval and number limits); Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage spaces; Carport for 2 or more; Covered parking; Awning over parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Private water; Electric metered; Gas metered
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide
• Construction: Wood siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Covered deck; Back yard; Side yard; Dog run; Low maintenance landscaping; Shed(s); Partial fencing; Fenced

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Refrigerator; Disposal; Breakfast nook; Skylight in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower; Other bathroom(s) with shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast nook; Dining area; Family room; Skylights; Window coverings; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer hookups; Cabinets in laundry area; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $457 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.5% in Jamestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#980 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Sonora Union High (town): math 21% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #243 of 517 in CA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.51%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,640
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18717 Mill Villa #101 #101	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	18mo	$144,000	$138	85
18717 Mill Villa Rd #421 #421	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (-8%)	9mo	$60,000	$63	80
18717 Mill Villa Rd #156	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,135 (+9%)	6mo	$72,000	$63	80
18717 Mill Villa Rd #250	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	944 (-9%)	3mo	$85,500	$91	77
18717 Mill Villa Rd #402 #402	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (-8%)	12mo	$89,000	$93	72
18725 Hwy 108 #71 #71	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+11%)	22mo	$59,000	$51	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,166
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $43,460
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95327

• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,579 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $315/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,001

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $533	-5% $495	+0% $457	+5% $419	+10% $381
Rent	-10% $332	-5% $395	+0% $457	+5% $519	+10% $582
Rate	-1.0pp $525	-0.5pp $491	base $457	+0.5pp $422	+1.0pp $386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $135,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,500 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,500 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,500 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,500 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,500 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,500 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,500 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,500 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,500 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,500 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,500 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,500 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,500 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $155,500
18. 2026-03-27
    listed $168,000 Active
19. 2025-12-06
    historical
20. 2025-09-28
    price
21. 2025-07-24
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $315 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,026 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$711/yr (+$59/mo · 226.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$315
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,516
• − Management: −$1,516
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $3,437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$825
• After-tax cash flow: $4,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonora Union High
• NCES district ID: 0637260
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,252
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5470
• State rank: #243 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #980
• US rank: #24642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime B Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,799

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.96%
• Current HPI: 100.2616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $155,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $168,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-06 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-07-24 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $315 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.