2205 Walnut Trl · Saw Creek, PA 18324

$229,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 263 Days on market

Built 1990 0.34 ac lot $177/sqft · 10% below area Est $268k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLERS! Don't miss out on this nice ranch home! Featuring 2 nice size bedrooms and 1 smaller bedroom. Front porch is brand new and was just re-built and stained. New thermostats were installed in whole house. Attic was recently redone with new insulation installed and new vents installed throughout. Master Bathroom was also redone. New toilet and brand new floor were installed.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Master bathroom
• New floor

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• ATTIC INSULATION
• MASTER BATHROOM
• NEW TOILET
• NEW FLOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.3% in Saw Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $229k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $201,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.97%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,245
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -14.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Evergreen Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-7%)	17mo	$270,000	$225	54
115 East Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+12%)	19mo	$329,900	$228	50
1019 Lancaster Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-7%)	17mo	$218,000	$182	47
107 Stafford Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (-3%)	21mo	$285,000	$228	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $43,926
• Equity at exit: $109,555

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $134,764
• Equity at exit: $174,147

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18324

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,394/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,999

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
272 Stafford Dr Bushkill, PA	3.0	2.0	1218	$2,200	$1.81	1d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,000 Active 263 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 262 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 261 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 260 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 259 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,000 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $229,000 Active 256 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $234,900 Active 254 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,900 Active 253 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $234,900 Active 252 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $234,900 Active 251 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $234,900 Active 248 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,900 Active 246 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,900 Active 245 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,900 Active 244 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $234,900 Active 243 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    price $234,900 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLERS! Don't miss out on this nice ranch home! Featuring 2 nice size bedrooms and 1 smaller bedroom. Front porch is brand new and was just re-built and stained. New thermostats were installed in whole house. Attic was recently redone with new insulation installed and new vents installed throughout. Master Bathroom was also redone. New toilet and brand new floor were installed.

18. 2026-03-22
    status Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLERS! Don't miss out on this nice ranch home! Featuring 2 nice size bedrooms and 1 smaller bedroom. Front porch is brand new and was just re-built and stained. New thermostats were installed in whole house. Attic was recently redone with new insulation installed and new vents installed throughout. Master Bathroom was also redone. New toilet and brand new floor were installed.

19. 2026-03-09
    status Pending 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLERS! Don't miss out on this nice ranch home! Featuring 2 nice size bedrooms and 1 smaller bedroom. Front porch is brand new and was just re-built and stained. New thermostats were installed in whole house. Attic was recently redone with new insulation installed and new vents installed throughout. Master Bathroom was also redone. New toilet and brand new floor were installed.

20. 2025-11-28
    price $239,500 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLERS! Don't miss out on this nice ranch home! Featuring 2 nice size bedrooms and 1 smaller bedroom. Front porch is brand new and was just re-built and stained. New thermostats were installed in whole house. Attic was recently redone with new insulation installed and new vents installed throughout. Master Bathroom was also redone. New toilet and brand new floor were installed.

21. 2025-09-15
    listed $245,900 Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLERS! Don't miss out on this nice ranch home! Featuring 2 nice size bedrooms and 1 smaller bedroom. Front porch is brand new and was just re-built and stained. New thermostats were installed in whole house. Attic was recently redone with new insulation installed and new vents installed throughout. Master Bathroom was also redone. New toilet and brand new floor were installed.

22. 2018-03-29
    soldstatus $70,000
23. 2018-03-06
    soldstatus $70,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Bright and Spacious - this ranch with high ceilings has open and bright living space with new skylites and large kitchen with lots of storage and room for all the chefs! 3 BR, 2 Full Baths, Master Bath has soaking tub, double sinks and separate shower. New roof and gutters, new septic pump, new French drains, Andersen windows. Not in a Homeowners Association. Move right in!

24. 2018-03-06
    soldstatus $70,000

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Bright and Spacious - this ranch with high ceilings has open and bright living space with new skylites and large kitchen with lots of storage and room for all the chefs! 3 BR, 2 Full Baths, Master Bath has soaking tub, double sinks and separate shower. New roof and gutters, new septic pump, new French drains, Andersen windows. Not in a Homeowners Association. Move right in!

25. 2017-06-06
    listed $65,000
26. 2017-05-25
    listed $65,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Bright and Spacious - this ranch with high ceilings has open and bright living space with new skylites and large kitchen with lots of storage and room for all the chefs! 3 BR, 2 Full Baths, Master Bath has soaking tub, double sinks and separate shower. New roof and gutters, new septic pump, new French drains, Andersen windows. Not in a Homeowners Association. Move right in!

27. 2011-08-03
    soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,394 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,506 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: +$112/yr (+$9/mo · 3.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,394
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$1,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$445
• After-tax cash flow: $2,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saw Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1538
• US rank: #20241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,591

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Estonian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.51%
• Current HPI: 243.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+245.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $234,900 LCAR
• 2026-03-22 Relisted — LCAR
• 2026-03-09 Pending — LCAR
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $239,500 LCAR
• 2025-09-15 Listed $245,900 LCAR
• 2018-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-06 Sold (MLS) $70,000 PWMLS
• 2018-03-06 Sold (MLS) $70,000 PMAR
• 2017-06-06 Listed $65,000 PWMLS
• 2017-05-25 Listed $65,000 PMAR
• 2011-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,394 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.