4590 Roberson Ave · Joseph City, AZ 86032

$79,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1966 10,018 sqft lot $110/sqft · at area comps

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is located in a small, quiet community, walking distance to both schools. With a grass front yard, mature trees, metal shed, solar and corner lot, this property is priced to go quick!

Key facts

• Metal shed
• Solar
• Grass front yard

Tags

• GRASS FRONT YARD
• MATURE TREES
• METAL SHED
• SOLAR
• CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#26 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Joseph City Unified District (4388) (rural): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #68 of 249 in AZ (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $79k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.51%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,254
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -52.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $34,746
• Equity at exit: $35,522

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.99×
• Total profit: $88,284
• Equity at exit: $54,743

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86032

• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,111 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $411/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $609

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   This property is located in a small, quiet community, walking distance to both schools. With a grass front yard, mature trees, metal shed, solar and corner lot, this property is priced to go quick!

2. 2026-03-18
   listed $79,000 Active 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   This property is located in a small, quiet community, walking distance to both schools. With a grass front yard, mature trees, metal shed, solar and corner lot, this property is priced to go quick!

3. 2025-10-21
   price $79,000
4. 2025-01-02
   historical
5. 2024-07-09
   listed $115,000 Active
6. 2016-12-09
   soldstatus $45,000
7. 2012-12-18
   soldstatus $20,000
8. 2000-09-14
   soldstatus $12,580

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $411 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $521 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$111/yr (+$9/mo · 27.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 4 d/yr ≥97°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$411
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,067
• − Management: −$1,067
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $3,673
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$881
• After-tax cash flow: $3,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joseph City Unified District (4388)
• NCES district ID: 0404010
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $47,954
• Composite: 33.86/100
• National rank: #5351
• State rank: #68 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Joseph City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #5840

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Joseph City, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,065

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 26% Native American 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 6% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+528.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — WMMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $79,000 WMMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $79,000 WMMLS
• 2025-01-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-07-09 Listed $115,000 ARMLS
• 2016-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2012-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $12,580 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $411 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.