5494 VT Route 30 · Townshend, VT 05353

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,306 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1986 8.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect opportunity for your next project with this unique property located near Townshend Dam in a no zoning town. This property is being sold via an estate, so sellers have not resided at the property and therefor all buyers should conduct their own due diligence. This blank canvas features a drilled well, private septic and multiple garages. The paved driveway provides easy access, while some selective tree clearing can reveal valley views. Nestled on a hill just off Route 30, this property is brimming with potential, ideal for those looking to create their dream retreat or investment. Don’t miss out on this chance to transform a hidden gem into something extraordinary

Key facts

• Multiple garages
• Paved driveway
• Private septic

Tags

• DRILLED WELL
• PRIVATE SEPTIC
• MULTIPLE GARAGES
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• SELECTIVE TREE CLEARING
• VALLEY VIEWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with capacity for 2 cars
• Utilities: Drilled well for water; On-site private septic; Electric service with circuit breakers (provider: GMP); High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Cottage/Camp style; Entry exists on public road
• Construction: Built in 1986; Vinyl exterior; Metal roof; Property surveyed
• Exterior features: Steep, wooded, mountain lot; Paved driveway; Road frontage on a public, paved, publicly maintained road

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Windham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Windham County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.09%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,894
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Sugar Maple Village Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,274 (-2%)	15mo	$254,000	$199	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $41,538
• Equity at exit: $50,535

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $110,327
• Equity at exit: $73,730

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05353

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,787 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,467/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,156

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $569	-5% $534	+0% $499	+5% $463	+10% $428
Rent	-10% $357	-5% $428	+0% $499	+5% $569	+10% $640
Rate	-1.0pp $561	-0.5pp $530	base $499	+0.5pp $466	+1.0pp $433

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,467 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,467 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,467
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,716
• − Management: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,283
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,028
• After-tax cash flow: $4,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Townshend

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,358

Population outlook (Windham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,432 people
• By 2030: 38,472 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 33,954 · -16.0%
• By 2050: 29,774 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 22,351 · -44.7%
• By 2100: 15,961 · -60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Windham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.7) · D 69.6% · R 26.9% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: 48.1pp · 2024: 42.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.7 2020: D+47.3 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+49.2 2008: D+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Current HPI: 161.6721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $125,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,467 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.