12609 Dessau Rd · Austin, TX 78754

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,178 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2013 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +0.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Needs TLC and some fixing, but very good condition Sale price for the house only new owner will be responsible for a lot rent to the community

Key facts

• 20x30 garage
• New carpet
• New skirting

Tags

• 20X30 GARAGE
• FULLY FURNISHED
• NEW CARPET
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW SKIRTING
• UPDATED A/C CONDENSER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2013
• Construction: Living area of 1,292 (living space)
• Exterior features: Located in the River Ranch subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $671 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Pflugerville ISD (suburban): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #421 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.4%/yr); 184 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 64% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.99%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $19,027
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $52,055
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78754

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Rents YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,706 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $310/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $671

Break-even live

Break-even rent $857

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12609 Linford Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1393	$2,100	$1.51	43d	1	0.23mi
12435 Dessau Rd Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	908	$1,300	$1.43	1d	9	0.43mi
12441 Dessau Rd Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,421	$1.27	43d	1	0.44mi
13021 Dessau Rd #231 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,700	$1.17	19d	1	0.44mi
12408 Dessau Rd Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$2,145	$1.99	2d	28	0.47mi
12435 Dessau Rd Apt 712 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,314	$1.18	10d	1	0.47mi
12435 Dessau Rd Unit 12468 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,375	$1.23	12d	1	0.47mi
12435 Dessau Rd Apt 612 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,064	$1.05	10d	1	0.47mi
12435 Dessau Rd Unit 12492 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,115	$1.10	12d	1	0.47mi
12309 Dessau Rd Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,825	$1.72	43d	1	0.57mi
13301 Dessau Rd Austin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,443	$1.63	1d	10	0.57mi
1500 E Parmer Ln Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,310	$1.34	43d	1	0.61mi
1500 E Parmer Ln Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,310	$1.34	2d	22	0.61mi
1900 E Parmer Ln Unit 10-2214 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,495	$1.40	3d	1	0.62mi
1900 E Parmer Ln Unit 1256 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1065	$1,499	$1.41	3d	1	0.62mi
1900 E Parmer Ln Unit 611 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,629	$1.53	2d	1	0.62mi
1127 Pearl Retreat Ln Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,890	$1.88	1d	36	0.65mi
1507 E Howard Ln Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	919	$1,210	$1.32	43d	1	0.69mi
1200 E Parmer Ln Austin, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$1,874	$1.95	1d	39	0.70mi
1501 E Howard Ln Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1054	$1,316	$1.25	14d	1	0.72mi
2500 E Howard Ln Unit 2523 Pflugerville, TX	2.0	2.0	1034	$1,839	$1.78	2d	1	0.73mi
13510 Lazyridge Dr Unit 1 Pflugerville, TX	2.0	2.0	1046	$1,810	$1.73	23d	1	0.78mi
13510 Lazyridge Dr Pflugerville, TX	2.0	2.0	1046	$1,810	$1.73	43d	1	0.78mi
12201 Dessau Rd Austin, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$2,023	$1.97	1d	31	0.78mi
12129 Dessau Rd Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,565	$1.19	43d	1	0.82mi
2500 E Howard Ln Manor, TX	3.0	1.0–3.5	1245	$3,166	$2.54	1d	50	0.83mi
2606 Totley Rd Pflugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$2,190	$1.77	1d	1	0.84mi
13309 Riding Dr Pflugerville, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$2,195	$1.50	17d	1	0.84mi
13527 Harrisglenn Dr Pflugerville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,199	$1.25	1d	21	0.88mi
12113 Dessau Rd Unit 12146 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,870	$1.43	2d	1	0.89mi
12113 Dessau Rd Unit 12170 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1065	$1,292	$1.21	2d	1	0.89mi
12800 Harrisglenn Dr Unit 12833 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,727	$1.24	2d	1	0.89mi
12800 Harrisglenn Dr Unit 12857 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1043	$1,182	$1.13	2d	1	0.89mi
13624 Dessau Rd Pflugerville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	919	$2,095	$2.28	3d	24	0.89mi
1308 Hazleton Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$2,100	$1.74	4d	1	0.90mi
2700 E Howard Ln Manor, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	890	$1,819	$2.04	1d	52	0.90mi
1601 Scottsdale Ln Austin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	960	$2,074	$2.16	43d	128	0.92mi
2805 Totley Rd Pflugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,099	$1.45	43d	1	0.94mi
2702 Paragon Fox Dr Pflugerville, TX	2.0	2.0	1320	$1,900	$1.44	43d	1	0.94mi
2615 Derwent Dr Pflugerville, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$2,195	$1.50	1d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 35 DOM

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   Needs TLC and some fixing, but very good condition Sale price for the house only new owner will be responsible for a lot rent to the community

4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 28 DOM

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   Needs TLC and some fixing, but very good condition Sale price for the house only new owner will be responsible for a lot rent to the community

7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $115,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $115,000 Active 1187-char remark
15. 2026-01-29
    status Pending
16. 2025-11-13
    status Active
17. 2025-11-07
    historical Active Option Contract
18. 2025-10-16
    price $125,000
19. 2025-07-20
    listed $128,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $310 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,794/yr (+$150/mo · 578.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$310
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $6,519
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,565
• After-tax cash flow: $6,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in good condition with recent upgrades, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Trim and mulch landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Trim and mulch landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pflugerville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834830
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $66,723
• Composite: 33.99/100
• National rank: #5321
• State rank: #421 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,690
• Household income: $90,121
• Rent vs Own: 45.4% rent · 54.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1520.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 37% White 28% Black 16% Asian 14% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Arab 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 28% Vietnamese 10% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.76%
• Current HPI: 228.2009
• Rent YoY: ▼ -6.43%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-60.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $50,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-06-09 Listed $70,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $115,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-01-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-11-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-11-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-20 Listed $128,000 NTREIS