20 Church St · New York, NY 11414

$385,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,070 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1930 3,778 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2-Story free-standing single-unit property with a full above ground basement, waterfront location and an oversized parcel spanning three tax lots. This property has exceptional potential and presents an amazing opportunity.

Key facts

• Oversized parcel
• Waterfront location
• 3,778 sq ft lot

Tags

• WATERFRONT LOCATION
• OVERSIZED PARCEL
• FULL ABOVE GROUND BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (off-street parking); No carport
• Utilities: Sewer: other; Utilities: See remarks
• Home design: Single family residence; Fixer condition
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Cul-de-sac lot; Irregular lot; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central cooling; Other heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining; Soaking tub; Washer/dryer hookup; Finished full basement; Two levels; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($219/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $385k).
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 227 Louis Armstrong (math 52% / reading 69%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,528 students, 68% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,874/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($95k/yr) (locally 985% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100; list at $385k implies a 384900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $385,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.95%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $919,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
161-40 99th St	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,890 (-9%)	5mo	$885,000	$468	76
100-19 160th Ave	0.14mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,934 (-7%)	3mo	$873,000	$451	75
163-30 91st St	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,150 (+4%)	6mo	$954,000	$444	63
160-46 87th St	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,000 (-3%)	2mo	$950,000	$475	61
161-39 90th St	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,956 (-6%)	6mo	$989,400	$506	60
160-31 90th St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-3%)	7mo	$855,000	$428	59
90-04 159th Ave	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,116 (+2%)	6mo	$850,000	$402	58
159-15 89th St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,177 (+5%)	2mo	$825,000	$379	57
160-14 86th St	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,000 (-3%)	4mo	$750,111	$375	54
160-39 91st St	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,366 (+14%)	8mo	$1,100,000	$465	44
158-35 91 St	0.54mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,300 (+11%)	5mo	$998,000	$434	43
161-08 86th St	0.73mi	4/4.0	2,366 (+14%)	2mo	$1,025,000	$433	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-60,931
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-50,372
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11414

• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,874 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$436 /mo · $5,231/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$813
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,850

Max offer price $385,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $236	-5% $127	+0% $18	+5% $-91	+10% $-200
Rent	-10% $-288	-5% $-135	+0% $18	+5% $171	+10% $324
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $116	base $18	+0.5pp $-82	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
155-69 99th St Unit 2nd Floor Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$3,200	$2.13	22d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $385,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 223-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $385,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,231 · $436/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,869 · $489/mo
• Expected delta: +$638/yr (+$53/mo · 12.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$5,231
• − Insurance: −$7,044
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,719
• − Management: −$3,719
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$5,995
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,439
• After-tax cash flow: $1,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 31,308
• Household income: $95,051
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 985.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.02%
• Current HPI: 206.6334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+120.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $385,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $100 Public Records
• 2016-09-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-27 Listed $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-03 Listed $389,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2010-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,231 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.