10391 Laurel Crest Trl · Conroe, TX 77378

$244,201

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · Land · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 $56/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

KB HOME UNDER CONSTRUCTION – Welcome home to 10391 Laurel Crest Trail, perfectly situated in the beautiful community of Grace Landing and zoned to Willis ISD! This charming one-story is situated on a lot with no back neighbors and offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and an attached 2-car garage, blending style and functionality in every detail. The inviting kitchen is designed for both everyday living and entertaining, showcasing stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, Woodmont cabinetry, quartz countertops, and an added breakfast bar for extra seating. The primary suite features dual vanities and elegant finishes that create a spa-like feel while the secondary bathroom features a vanity w

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure
• HOA & community: Association: Vision Communities Management; Annual association fee; Association fee amount: $675 annually; Community features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2026
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; KB Home builder
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Fence (back yard); Subdivision lot; Backs to greenbelt/park; Concrete road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (16 x 12); Bedroom on first floor (12 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity in bath(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen-family room combo; Pantry; Quartz counters; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $244,201 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $235,626.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $244k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-297/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 720 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $185,182 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,626
• List price: $244,201
• Delta: 3.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-43,506
• Equity at exit: $35,133

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-54,690
• Equity at exit: $20,373

Cash invested: $65,975 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 720
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,852 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,236
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,174/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,883

Max offer price $231,254

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $42	+0% $-25	+5% $-91	+10% $-158
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-98	+0% $-25	+5% $48	+10% $122
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $35	base $-25	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,907
• Closing costs: $7,069
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $56 · $672/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,201 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,201 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,201 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,201 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,201 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,201 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,201 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,201 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,201 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $244,201 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,201 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,201 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,201 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,201 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $244,201 Active 1020-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,174 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,469 · $372/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,295/yr (+$275/mo · 280.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,199
• − Property taxes: −$1,174
• − Insurance: −$1,178
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,778
• − Management: −$1,778
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$6,855
• Taxable loss: −$4,411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,059
• After-tax cash flow: $762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $244,201 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,174 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.