8820 Point Aux Chenes Rd · Gulf Park Estates, MS 39564

$70,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2006 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OWNER FINANCE. 4 BDRM. 2 BATH. $47,900.00. GULF PARK ESTATES. JACUZZIS WHIRLPOOL. 2300 SQ FT HEATED & COOLED. 3 WALK IN CLOSETS. WASHER, DRYER & FRIG REMAIN. NEW CARPET. WOOD BURNING F.P. DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS. CATH CEILING. PATIO PORCH.

Key facts

• Near shopping
• Nice-sized lot
• Outdoor room

Tags

• NICE-SIZED LOT
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• GENEROUS LIVING AREAS
• OUTDOOR ROOM
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• NEAR SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer available
• Home design: Manufactured home (mobile home); One level; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Siding construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Porch; Privacy fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Lighting
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $992 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 30.6% vs local median 5.2% in Gulf Park Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#43 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Ocean Springs School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 130 in MS (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.85%
• DSCR: 4.86
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $48,188
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $108,871
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,339 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $396/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $992

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,083

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1700 Lake Mars Ave Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,100	$1.00	13d	1	0.36mi
8001 Westwood Cir Ocean Springs, MS	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1996	$2,425	$1.21	13d	1	1.27mi
1632 Emerald Lakes Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0–4.0	2.0	1585	$2,350	$1.48	13d	1	1.27mi
7709 Clamshell Ave Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.5	2900	$2,500	$0.86	13d	1	1.38mi
3305 N 8th St Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,250	$1.25	21d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-19
   listed $70,000 Active
2. 2013-07-12
   soldstatus 243-char remark

   Show marketing remark (243 chars)

   OWNER FINANCE. 4 BDRM. 2 BATH. $47,900.00. GULF PARK ESTATES. JACUZZIS WHIRLPOOL. 2300 SQ FT HEATED & COOLED. 3 WALK IN CLOSETS. WASHER, DRYER & FRIG REMAIN. NEW CARPET. WOOD BURNING F.P. DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS. CATH CEILING. PATIO PORCH.

3. 2013-06-04
   listed $47,900 243-char remark

   Show marketing remark (243 chars)

   OWNER FINANCE. 4 BDRM. 2 BATH. $47,900.00. GULF PARK ESTATES. JACUZZIS WHIRLPOOL. 2300 SQ FT HEATED & COOLED. 3 WALK IN CLOSETS. WASHER, DRYER & FRIG REMAIN. NEW CARPET. WOOD BURNING F.P. DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS. CATH CEILING. PATIO PORCH.

4. 2013-05-14
   soldstatus 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Long Kitchen/Dining/Livingroom. 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Master has a walkin closet. Wood burning fireplace. Covered front porch.Home is a modular on a permanent foundation.Being sold AS IS. Needs TLC. Kids bedrooms need painted and new flooring. Will offer Lease to Own with large downpayment.

5. 2013-02-08
   listed $42,500 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Long Kitchen/Dining/Livingroom. 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Master has a walkin closet. Wood burning fireplace. Covered front porch.Home is a modular on a permanent foundation.Being sold AS IS. Needs TLC. Kids bedrooms need painted and new flooring. Will offer Lease to Own with large downpayment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $396 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $553 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: +$157/yr (+$13/mo · 39.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$396
• − Insurance: −$5,468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,245
• − Management: −$2,245
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $11,754
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,821
• After-tax cash flow: $9,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 2803360
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,485
• Composite: 53.35/100
• National rank: #1477
• State rank: #1 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulf Park Estates

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #7955

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Park Estates, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• City population: 43,240
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 734.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+64.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $70,000 MLSU
• 2013-07-12 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-06-04 Listed $47,900 MLSU
• 2013-05-14 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-02-08 Listed $42,500 MLSU

Property tax history

-8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $396 · -10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.