The Woodland Plan · Grangerland, TX 77302

$257,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,745 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Woodland plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a downstairs primary suite, and an upstairs game room. All bedrooms come equipped with walk-in closets.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 87 days

🏗️ New construction. The $257,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,226.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $258k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $258k).
• Recommended offer: $243k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Milam El (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 524 students, 82% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $242,510 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.60%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,226
• List price: $257,990
• Delta: -4.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16771 Country Roots Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+0%)	0mo	$279,990	$160	78
16787 Country Roots Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+0%)	1mo	$274,990	$157	76
15557 Granger Green Way	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+0%)	1mo	$266,990	$153	75
16807 Country Roots Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+3%)	2mo	$277,990	$155	70
15623 Tranquil Pines St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (-3%)	1mo	$254,990	$150	69
16891 Needlepoint Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,582 (-9%)	1mo	$224,900	$142	66
14166 Granger Pointe Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,557 (-11%)	2mo	$260,040	$167	51
14158 Granger Pointe Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,557 (-11%)	2mo	$254,040	$163	51
15427 Woody Haven Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (-13%)	1mo	$249,990	$165	50
14305 Grey Pointe	0.63mi	4/2.5	1,981 (+14%)	1mo	$269,790	$136	48
14143 Granger Pointe Ln	0.64mi	4/2.5	1,981 (+14%)	2mo	$252,790	$128	46
14308 Grey Pointe Ct	0.66mi	4/2.5	1,981 (+14%)	2mo	$264,640	$134	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-28,471
• Equity at exit: $40,292

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,678
• Equity at exit: $23,364

Cash invested: $75,663 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,652 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,417
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,053/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,364

Max offer price $270,226

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $414	-5% $321	+0% $227	+5% $134	+10% $41
Rent	-10% $18	-5% $123	+0% $227	+5% $332	+10% $437
Rate	-1.0pp $363	-0.5pp $296	base $227	+0.5pp $157	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,556
• Closing costs: $8,107
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,230	$1.33	0d	13	0.28mi
15271 Country West Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,350	$0.86	45d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $257,990 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $257,990 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $257,990 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $257,990 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $257,990 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $257,990 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $257,990 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $257,990 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $257,990 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $257,990 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $257,990 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $257,990 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $257,990 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $257,990 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    listed $257,990 Active 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    The Woodland plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a downstairs primary suite, and an upstairs game room. All bedrooms come equipped with walk-in closets.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,137
• − Property taxes: −$4,053
• − Insurance: −$1,351
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,545
• − Management: −$2,545
• − Depreciation: −$7,861
• Taxable loss: −$1,675
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$402
• After-tax cash flow: $3,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Woodland Plan is a well-maintained, move-in-ready home with good curb appeal and interior finishes. Minor updates to paint, flooring, and appliances can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring in bathrooms can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by enhancing convenience and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring in bathrooms can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by enhancing convenience and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $257,990 Zillow