503 Sagebrush Ln · Kennett, MO 63857

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Other public records · 187 Days on market

Built 2004 0.28 ac lot $89/sqft · 9% above area Est $107k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort, convenience, and a few updates throughout. The floor plan features a cozy living area and a functional kitchen, making it easy to settle right in. The primary bedroom includes its own bath, and the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or office space. A 2-car attached garage adds convenience, while the nice-sized lot gives you room to enjoy the outdoors. A new HVAC unit has been installed for peace of mind.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 6.5% in Kennett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#561 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, crime F.
• Kennett 39 (town): math 28% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #262 of 324 in MO (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Dunklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dunklin County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.37%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,047
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -15.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-7,296
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,177
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63857

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,008 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $580/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $865

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $139	+0% $114	+5% $88	+10% $63
Rent	-10% $34	-5% $74	+0% $114	+5% $153	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $136	base $114	+0.5pp $90	+1.0pp $67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 182 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 180 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 170 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 169 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 168 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 167 DOM
16. 2025-12-15
    listed $90,000 Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort, convenience, and a few updates throughout. The floor plan features a cozy living area and a functional kitchen, making it easy to settle right in. The primary bedroom includes its own bath, and the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or office space. A 2-car attached garage adds convenience, while the nice-sized lot gives you room to enjoy the outdoors. A new HVAC unit has been installed for peace of mind.

17. 2025-11-24
    status Active
18. 2025-10-10
    status Pending
19. 2025-09-24
    status Active
20. 2025-09-12
    status Pending
21. 2025-08-31
    listed $83,000 Active
22. 2024-12-27
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2024-11-27
    status Pending
24. 2024-11-21
    listed $12,500 Active
25. 2007-04-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $580 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$293/yr (+$24/mo · 50.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$580
• − Insurance: −$1,952
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$968
• − Management: −$968
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$28
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7
• After-tax cash flow: $1,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kennett 39
• NCES district ID: 2916500
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,065
• Composite: 26.12/100
• National rank: #7284
• State rank: #262 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kennett

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #561
• US rank: #20397

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,964

Population outlook (Dunklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,599 people
• By 2030: 27,230 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 24,696 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 22,402 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 17,776 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 13,890 · -51.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Dunklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.8% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.3pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+57.0 2016: R+53.6 2012: R+30.2 2008: R+21.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.51%
• Current HPI: 127.6077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+620.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Listed $90,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-31 Listed $83,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-27 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-27 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-21 Listed $12,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $580 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.