37237 Lakeshore Ave · Prairieville, LA 70769

$399,900

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,162 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

Built 2001 0.33 ac lot $126/sqft · 23% below area Est $522k · 23% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice large house in popular Lakes at Ascension near Dutchtown, close to interstate by Hwy 73. NEW ROOF INSTALLED IN 2025. The chef’s kitchen is a standout feature, boasting painted cabinets, a gas cooktop, microwave, double oven, dishwasher, and refrigerator. Ample cabinet space and a large pantry provide exceptional storage for all your culinary needs. Primary bedroom featuring a cozy fireplace and a primary bathroom with separate sinks, toilets, and dual walk-in closets—a perfect layout for privacy and convenience. All walls and most trim has been freshly painted. Oversized laundry room with a washer, dryer, sink, and freezer space. No carpet throughout the house for easy maintenance, but due to wear and tear on floors Seller is offer a $10,000 flooring allowance with accepted offer. Fenced backyard with an extended patio area and a built-in grill, ideal for entertaining or relaxing outdoors. The 3 car garage is complete with tool closet, and a wall of cabinets.

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Painted cabinets
• Chef kitchen

Tags

• CHEF KITCHEN
• PAINTED CABINETS
• GAS COOKTOP
• DOUBLE OVEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• LARGE PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-487 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (31.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#70 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dutchtown Primary School (math 65% / reading 73%, grade A-, #32 of 646 statewide, top 5%, 603 students, 43% FRL); Dutchtown Middle School (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B+, #10 of 218 statewide, top 5%, 657 students, 36% FRL); Dutchtown High School (math 70% / reading 68%, grade B, #9 of 265 statewide, top 3%, 2,643 students, 30% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 53% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ascension Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 496 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 24 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,623 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.22%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $521,724
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -23.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37315 Lakeshore Ave	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,975 (-6%)	2mo	$504,900	$170	78
37435 Cypress Alley Ave	0.38mi	4/3.5	3,144 (-1%)	7mo	$525,000	$167	73
37329 Mindy Way Ave	0.27mi	4/3.0	3,109 (-2%)	10mo	$515,000	$166	73
37161 Lakeshore Ave	0.15mi	4/4.0	3,010 (-5%)	15mo	$525,000	$174	73
13627 Forest Lawn Dr	0.40mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,273 (+4%)	5mo	$415,500	$127	64
37242 Ski Side Ave	0.17mi	4/3.0	3,456 (+9%)	12mo	$649,900	$188	63
37295 Ski Side Ave	0.16mi	5/5.0 (+1)	3,508 (+11%)	6mo	$669,000	$191	61
13583 Lakeway Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,713 (-14%)	2mo	$440,000	$162	57
37203 Cobblestone Ave	0.42mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,060 (-3%)	18mo	$425,000	$139	51
37412 Cypress Alley Ave	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,774 (-12%)	20mo	$489,900	$177	43
38085 La Hwy 621	0.64mi	4/3.5	2,757 (-13%)	7mo	$414,900	$150	41
37534 Cypress Hollow Ave	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,788 (-12%)	20mo	$574,900	$206	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-94,565
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-117,069
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70769

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,726 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$356 /mo · $4,273/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,343

Max offer price $313,848

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-261	-5% $-374	+0% $-487	+5% $-600	+10% $-713
Rent	-10% $-702	-5% $-595	+0% $-487	+5% $-379	+10% $-272
Rate	-1.0pp $-286	-0.5pp $-385	base $-487	+0.5pp $-591	+1.0pp $-696

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37313 Mindy Way Ave Prairieville, LA	4.0	3.0	2517	$4,050	$1.61	45d	1	0.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $399,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $440,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $440,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $440,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $440,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $440,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $440,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $440,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $440,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $440,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $440,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $440,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $440,000 Active 60 DOM
18. 2026-03-31
    listed $440,000 Active 990-char remark

    Show marketing remark (979 chars)

    Nice large house in popular Lakes at Ascension near Dutchtown, close to interstate by Hwy 73. NEW ROOF INSTALLED IN 2025. The chef's kitchen is a standout feature, boasting painted cabinets, a gas cooktop, microwave, double oven, dishwasher, and refrigerator. Ample cabinet space and a large pantry provide exceptional storage for all your culinary needs. Primary bedroom featuring a cozy fireplace and a primary bathroom with separate sinks, toilets, and dual walk-in closets--a perfect layout for privacy and convenience. All walls and most trim has been freshly painted. Oversized laundry room with a washer, dryer, sink, and freezer space. No carpet throughout the house for easy maintenance, but due to wear and tear on floors Seller is offer a $10,000 flooring allowance with accepted offer. Fenced backyard with an extended patio area and a built-in grill, ideal for entertaining or relaxing outdoors. The 3 car garage is complete with tool closet, and a wall of cabinets.

19. 2026-03-31
    listed $440,000 Active 979-char remark

    Show marketing remark (979 chars)

    Nice large house in popular Lakes at Ascension near Dutchtown, close to interstate by Hwy 73. NEW ROOF INSTALLED IN 2025. The chef's kitchen is a standout feature, boasting painted cabinets, a gas cooktop, microwave, double oven, dishwasher, and refrigerator. Ample cabinet space and a large pantry provide exceptional storage for all your culinary needs. Primary bedroom featuring a cozy fireplace and a primary bathroom with separate sinks, toilets, and dual walk-in closets--a perfect layout for privacy and convenience. All walls and most trim has been freshly painted. Oversized laundry room with a washer, dryer, sink, and freezer space. No carpet throughout the house for easy maintenance, but due to wear and tear on floors Seller is offer a $10,000 flooring allowance with accepted offer. Fenced backyard with an extended patio area and a built-in grill, ideal for entertaining or relaxing outdoors. The 3 car garage is complete with tool closet, and a wall of cabinets.

20. 2026-03-04
    price $444,900
21. 2026-03-04
    price $444,900
22. 2025-12-02
    price $449,900
23. 2025-12-02
    price $449,900
24. 2025-10-10
    historical $3,000
25. 2025-08-20
    listed $3,000
26. 2025-08-19
    price $460,000
27. 2025-08-19
    price $460,000
28. 2025-07-01
    price $475,000
29. 2025-07-01
    price $475,000
30. 2025-01-24
    listed $500,000 Active
31. 2025-01-24
    listed $500,000 Active
32. 2022-06-28
    soldstatus
33. 2022-06-08
    listed $2,750
34. 2021-08-01
    soldstatus
35. 2021-07-08
    listed $2,750
36. 2019-07-04
    soldstatus
37. 2018-07-09
    listed $2,750
38. 2017-06-01
    soldstatus
39. 2017-03-27
    listed $2,850
40. 2015-08-28
    soldstatus
41. 2015-07-08
    listed $2,750
42. 2013-12-30
    soldstatus $365,000
43. 2013-12-26
    soldstatus
44. 2013-05-03
    listed $379,900
45. 2013-05-03
    listed $379,900
46. 2009-05-01
    listed $374,850
47. 2009-05-01
    listed $374,850
48. 2008-07-07
    listed $399,900
49. 2008-07-07
    listed $399,900
50. 2007-03-31
    listed $424,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,273 · $356/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,273 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$4,273
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,617
• − Management: −$2,617
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$13,078
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,139
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Prairieville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #8507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,278
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,278
• Household income: $109,404
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 15% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.56%
• Current HPI: 144.2267
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+39.3% since first listed

41 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $440,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $440,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $444,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $444,900 GBRMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $449,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $449,900 GBRMLS
• 2025-10-10 Rental Removed $3,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-08-20 Listed for Rent $3,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $460,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $460,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $475,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $475,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-01-24 Listed $500,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-01-24 Listed $500,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-06-28 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2022-06-08 Listed $2,750 GBRMLS
• 2021-08-01 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2021-07-08 Listed $2,750 GBRMLS
• 2019-07-04 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2018-07-09 Listed $2,750 GBRMLS
• 2017-06-01 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2017-03-27 Listed $2,850 GBRMLS
• 2015-08-28 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2015-07-08 Listed $2,750 GBRMLS
• 2013-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $365,000 Public Records
• 2013-12-26 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2013-05-03 Listed $379,900 GBRMLS
• 2013-05-03 Listed $379,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2009-05-01 Listed $374,850 AcadianaMLS
• 2009-05-01 Listed $374,850 GBRMLS
• 2008-07-07 Listed $399,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2008-07-07 Listed $399,900 GBRMLS
• 2007-03-31 Listed $424,100 AcadianaMLS
• 2007-03-31 Listed $424,100 GBRMLS
• 2005-12-01 Listed $419,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2005-12-01 Listed $419,900 GBRMLS
• 2005-09-09 Listed $419,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2005-09-09 Listed $419,900 GBRMLS
• 2004-12-06 Listed $419,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2004-12-06 Listed $419,900 GBRMLS
• 2001-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $315,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,273 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.