8200 Sunbury Ln · Houston, TX 77095

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · — sqft · MultiFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1983 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

At The Grove, you have everything you need to lead an easy and fulfilling everyday life without ever leaving the comfort of your home or your gated community. Your pet-friendly 1 or 2 bedroom apartment includes perks like a chef-worthy kitchen with trendy cabinetry, spacious countertops, modern appliances, and a custom tile backsplash. You can enjoy access to community amenities like a fitness center with cardio equipment, an on-site play area, and a resort-worthy swimming pool. We & acirc; & euro; & trade; ll always be there for you when you rent one of these stunning apartment homes. Living at The Grove puts you in a central location near Jersey Village, just minutes away from

Key facts

• Built 1983
• Listed 19 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($971/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Owens El (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 774 students, 77% FRL); Labay Middle (math 46% / reading 47%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,199 students, 70% FRL); Cypress Falls H S (math 52% / reading 60%, grade C, #361 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 2,865 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 43% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 335 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,459 (5.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.31%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.94% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,020
• Equity at exit: $36,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $8,093
• Equity at exit: $38,770

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77095

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,415 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $185	-5% $133	+0% $81	+5% $29	+10% $-23
Rent	-10% $-31	-5% $25	+0% $81	+5% $137	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $119	base $81	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8200 Sunbury Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	800	$1,164	$1.46	45d	1	0.02mi
8255 Sunbury Ln Apt 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,051	$1.17	18d	1	0.08mi
8255 Sunbury Ln Unit 8276 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	600	$827	$1.38	18d	1	0.08mi
8255 Sunbury Ln Unit 8276 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$975	$1.50	45d	1	0.08mi
8255 Sunbury Ln Unit 8288 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,561	$1.32	18d	1	0.08mi
8261 Sunbury Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,322	$1.47	45d	1	0.13mi
8255 Sunbury Ln Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,304	$1.46	1d	27	0.13mi
8255 Sunbury Ln Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	781	$985	$1.26	45d	1	0.13mi
18 Easton Commons Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	637	$890	$1.40	45d	1	0.16mi
18 Easton Commons Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,123	$1.40	19d	1	0.16mi
18 Easton Commons Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	637	$890	$1.40	20d	1	0.16mi
14819 Chetland Place Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	—	$2,050	—	4d	1	0.18mi
8315 Columbia Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	—	$2,150	—	26d	1	0.19mi
8335 Hawthorn Valley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	—	$2,150	—	45d	1	0.19mi
14818 Chetland Place Dr Unit CHEP18-1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2490	$2,100	$0.84	45d	1	0.19mi
8440 Easton Commons Dr Unit 1165 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$918	$1.67	0d	1	0.20mi
8440 Easton Commons Dr Unit 8497 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	907	$1,233	$1.36	12d	1	0.20mi
8440 Easton Commons Dr Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	907	$1,193	$1.32	0d	1	0.20mi
8440 Easton Commons Dr Unit 8491 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	501	$760	$1.52	17d	1	0.20mi
8335 Columbia Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1767	$2,000	$1.13	45d	1	0.21mi
14811 West Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	943	$1,455	$1.54	26d	1	0.22mi
14811 West Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	943	$1,455	$1.54	45d	1	0.22mi
8022 Willancy Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	—	$2,045	—	45d	1	0.24mi
8440 Easton Commons Dr Unit 8514 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$968	$1.76	12d	1	0.26mi
8440 Easton Commons Dr Unit 8514 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	501	$749	$1.50	23d	1	0.26mi
14811 West Rd Unit 14826 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$1,432	$1.96	12d	1	0.27mi
14811 West Rd Unit 14832 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$1,423	$1.95	45d	1	0.27mi
14811 West Rd Unit 325 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$1,382	$1.89	0d	1	0.27mi
14811 West Rd Unit 14838 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	943	$1,599	$1.70	14d	1	0.27mi
14811 West Rd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,658	$1.53	7d	1	0.27mi
14811 West Rd Unit 3148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$2,132	$1.36	0d	1	0.27mi
14811 West Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,658	$1.53	9d	1	0.27mi
14811 West Rd Unit 14848 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1187	$1,809	$1.52	45d	1	0.27mi
14811 West Rd Unit 14834 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,682	$1.56	12d	1	0.27mi
14811 West Rd Unit 14826 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$1,428	$1.96	14d	1	0.27mi
14811 West Rd Unit 324 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$1,393	$1.91	9d	1	0.27mi
14811 West Rd Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,642	$1.52	0d	1	0.27mi
14811 West Rd Unit 14844 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$2,172	$1.38	12d	1	0.27mi
15125 West Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	969	$1,528	$1.58	1d	29	0.33mi
14623 Roaring Fork Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	—	$2,100	—	45d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $150,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 687-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $90,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,358
• − Management: −$1,358
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,507
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$362
• After-tax cash flow: $1,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

The property is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. Minor updates to landscaping, painting, and pool accessories would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint improves appearance and value
• Both Upgrade pool accessories — Modernizes the pool area and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint improves appearance and value ↑
• Both Upgrade pool accessories — Modernizes the pool area and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,767
• Household income: $91,594
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1870.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Vietnamese 5% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.94%
• Current HPI: 236.0249
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $90,000 FSBO.com