17222 Boulder Beach Dr · Crosby, TX 77532

$225,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · Land · 194 Days on market

Built 2025 5,231 sqft lot $143/sqft · 8% below area Est $247k · 8% under $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The single-story Beeville plan features an open concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room!

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• 5,231 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS GATHERING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $226k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $198,871 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.86%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,840
• List price: $225,990
• Delta: -8.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-26,812
• Equity at exit: $33,696

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-19,260
• Equity at exit: $19,539

Cash invested: $63,277 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,185
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,214/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,816

Max offer price $225,990

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $332	-5% $268	+0% $204	+5% $140	+10% $76
Rent	-10% $40	-5% $122	+0% $204	+5% $286	+10% $368
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $261	base $204	+0.5pp $145	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,498
• Closing costs: $6,780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
430 Fishhawk Way Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,863	$1.36	5d	1	0.56mi
711 Equinox St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$1,881	$1.04	44d	1	1.03mi
16807 Lisbon Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	2196	$1,910	$0.87	44d	1	1.17mi
16318 River Wood Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,946	$1.16	2d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Active 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   The single-story Beeville plan features an open concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room!

2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   The single-story Beeville plan features an open concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room!

3. 2026-04-14
   price $225,990 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   The single-story Beeville plan features an open concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room!

4. 2026-03-23
   status Active 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   The single-story Beeville plan features an open concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room!

5. 2026-02-25
   status Pending 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   The single-story Beeville plan features an open concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room!

6. 2026-02-20
   price $229,990 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   The single-story Beeville plan features an open concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room!

7. 2025-11-13
   price $239,990 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   The single-story Beeville plan features an open concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room!

8. 2025-11-04
   price $249,990 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   The single-story Beeville plan features an open concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room!

9. 2025-10-22
   price $239,990 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   The single-story Beeville plan features an open concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room!

10. 2025-10-07
    price $249,540 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    The single-story Beeville plan features an open concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room!

11. 2025-09-26
    listed $263,540 Active 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    The single-story Beeville plan features an open concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,214 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,136 · $345/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,922/yr (+$243/mo · 240.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,659
• − Property taxes: −$1,214
• − Insurance: −$1,130
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$6,574
• Taxable loss: −$1,322
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$317
• After-tax cash flow: $2,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $225,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $249,540 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $263,540 HARMLS