3107 Fresno Ave · Hidalgo, TX 78557

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,939 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 294 Days on market

Built 2001 6,760 sqft lot Est $322k · 43% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Lease to own available with 3.5% down. Credit score low as 461 subject to approval. This beautiful 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience, featuring a spacious open-concept kitchen with a large island that flows seamlessly into the dining area—ideal for family gatherings and entertaining. The generous backyard provides plenty of space for hosting guests or enjoying quiet evenings outdoors. Located just down the street from the high school and a variety of local dining options, this home combines modern living with a prime location that’s perfect for families and anyone looking to enjoy both space and accessibility.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Large island
• Prime location

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.1552 acre (6,760 sq ft); Paved road access; Living area source: HidalgoCAD; Non-conveying items noted: stove, refrigerator, microwave, washer/dryer
• HOA & community: No HOA; Community sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport; No covered parking
• Utilities: Sewer: Assessment
• Home design: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Mature trees; Covered patio with patio slab; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater; No conveying appliances (stove, refrigerator, microwave not included)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Concrete; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Laminate countertops; Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Mini blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area with washer/dryer connections

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $185,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$321,874) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-323/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Hidalgo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#488 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Valley View ISD (suburban): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #631 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wilbur E Lucas El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 468 students, 94% FRL); Valley View J H (math 23% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 483 students, 95% FRL); Valley View H S (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 1,170 students, 96% FRL).
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 294 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 294 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $321,874
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
903 N 35th St	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,899 (-2%)	3mo	$199,000	$105	80
2924 Monterrey St	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,954 (+1%)	2mo	$189,000	$97	78
402 N 30th St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,852 (-4%)	6mo	$285,000	$154	71
3003 E Palo Blanco St	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,876 (-3%)	6mo	$315,200	$168	63
301 N 30th St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,811 (-7%)	3mo	$295,000	$163	63
303 N 32nd St	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,834 (-5%)	2mo	$310,000	$169	63
2809 E Palo Blanco Ave	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,745 (-10%)	1mo	$299,000	$171	55
2801 E Q Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,859 (-4%)	6mo	$315,000	$169	54
1515 32nd St	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,740 (-10%)	2mo	$285,000	$164	54
401 N 30th St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,811 (-7%)	6mo	$289,000	$160	48
3107 E Q Ave	0.57mi	3/3.0	1,744 (-10%)	9mo	$289,500	$166	45
3009 E Tamarindo Ave	0.73mi	3/3.0	1,654 (-15%)	4mo	$295,000	$178	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $99,170
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $293,638
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78557

• Home prices YoY: 17.9%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,790 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$394 /mo · $4,730/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,825

Max offer price $180,247

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $25	+0% $-27	+5% $-79	+10% $-132
Rent	-10% $-168	-5% $-98	+0% $-27	+5% $44	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $66	-0.5pp $20	base $-27	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2509 Coma St Hidalgo, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$1,750	$0.97	25d	1	0.54mi
400 S 22nd St Hidalgo, TX	3.0	2.5	2515	$2,000	$0.80	45d	1	0.86mi
2304 E Tamarindo Ave Hidalgo, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,950	$1.35	25d	1	0.97mi
704 S 17th St Hidalgo, TX	3.0	2.0	1666	$1,650	$0.99	25d	1	1.40mi
719 Sherryl Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1524	$1,500	$0.98	16d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 294 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 293 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 292 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 662-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 291 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 290 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 288 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 287 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 284 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 283 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 282 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 279 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 278 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 277 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 276 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 275 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 274 DOM
18. 2025-12-29
    price $185,000
19. 2025-11-12
    price $190,000
20. 2025-10-23
    price $193,000
21. 2025-10-06
    price $195,000
22. 2025-09-23
    price $200,000
23. 2025-08-28
    listed $210,000 Active
24. 2006-11-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,730 · $394/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,730 · $394/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 95% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$4,730
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,719
• − Management: −$1,719
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$804
• After-tax cash flow: $481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley View ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,158
• Composite: 25.37/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #631 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hidalgo

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #488
• US rank: #9681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hidalgo, TX
• City population: 14,250
• Population (ZIP): 14,250

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 99% Two or more races 47%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada
• Languages at home: 6% English-only · Spanish 94%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.26%
• Current HPI: 225.701
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $185,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $190,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $193,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $195,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $200,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $210,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2006-11-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,730 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.