5036 Royal Oaks Dr · Kelly Ridge, CA 95966

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1976 8,276 sqft lot Est $183k · 13% under $3/mo HOA ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FANTASTIC GOLF COURSE VIEW from Living and Master Bedroom areas. Looks down course from the 2nd tee. Home is immaculate with hard to find 3 Bedrooms. New carpet in two bedrooms. Recently painted kitchen. Excellent floor plan with formal dining room plus either a breakfast area or family room area off living room. Wood Stove. Backyard has a putting green. PRE-HUD FINANCING IS AVAILABLE. PRICE REDUCED FOR EXCELLENT BUY!!

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Dual-pane windows

Tags

• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• UPDATED PRIVATE BATHROOM
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory association with $30 annual fee; No association amenities listed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home (semi-custom); Single-story; Built in 1976
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Adjacent to golf course; Low-maintenance yard; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Hood over range; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tubs (one tub with shower over)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Wood stove; Central cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Great room living area; Front porch; Laminate countertops
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room with 220V hookup; Electric laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.9% in Kelly Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#765 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 373 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.49%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 La Foret Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$183,000	$127	90
39 La Foret Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$179,000	$124	88
18 Oak Hl	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$205,000	$142	85
7 Blue Oak Ct	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (+2%)	4mo	$120,000	$82	82
15 Chaparral Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$135,000	$94	82
26 Chaparral Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	3mo	$200,000	$130	71
511 Silver Leaf Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$160,000	$111	71
5341 Treasure Hl	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$174	70
12 Hanging Tree Ct	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	4mo	$267,000	$199	67
422 Lodgeview Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$105,000	$78	61
5 Coho Ct	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	0mo	$219,900	$164	60
71 Greenbrier Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$157,000	$126	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $10,853
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $56,636
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95966

• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,942 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $566/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,210

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $669	-5% $624	+0% $578	+5% $533	+10% $488
Rent	-10% $425	-5% $502	+0% $578	+5% $655	+10% $732
Rate	-1.0pp $659	-0.5pp $619	base $578	+0.5pp $537	+1.0pp $495

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $160,000 Pending 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $160,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $160,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $160,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $160,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2007-08-02
   soldstatus $150,000 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   FANTASTIC GOLF COURSE VIEW from Living and Master Bedroom areas. Looks down course from the 2nd tee. Home is immaculate with hard to find 3 Bedrooms. New carpet in two bedrooms. Recently painted kitchen. Excellent floor plan with formal dining room plus either a breakfast area or family room area off living room. Wood Stove. Backyard has a putting green. PRE-HUD FINANCING IS AVAILABLE. PRICE REDUCED FOR EXCELLENT BUY!!

8. 2006-11-01
   listed $169,900 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   FANTASTIC GOLF COURSE VIEW from Living and Master Bedroom areas. Looks down course from the 2nd tee. Home is immaculate with hard to find 3 Bedrooms. New carpet in two bedrooms. Recently painted kitchen. Excellent floor plan with formal dining room plus either a breakfast area or family room area off living room. Wood Stove. Backyard has a putting green. PRE-HUD FINANCING IS AVAILABLE. PRICE REDUCED FOR EXCELLENT BUY!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $566 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,216 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$650/yr (+$54/mo · 114.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$566
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $4,558
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,094
• After-tax cash flow: $5,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oroville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0629130
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,085
• Composite: 28.26/100
• National rank: #6794
• State rank: #300 of 517 in CA

Livability — Kelly Ridge

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #765
• US rank: #22221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kelly Ridge, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $65,586
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.58%
• Current HPI: 267.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2007-08-02 Sold (MLS) $150,000 CRMLS
• 2006-11-01 Listed $169,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $566 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.