767 Hilo Rd · Gladwin, MI 48624

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 1971 0.25 ac lot $125/sqft · 34% above area Est $56k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two bedroom waterfront ( when the lake comes back, projected to be Summer 2026) home with 101 ft of frontage on a short canal leading to Main Smallwood Lake. Two Beautiful deep lots, just off a paved road.

Key facts

• Paved road
• Waterfront home
• Two deep lots

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• 101 FT OF FRONTAGE
• SHORT CANAL
• MAIN SMALLWOOD LAKE
• TWO DEEP LOTS
• PAVED ROAD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: LP/Propane gas heating fuel; Private well water; Septic system
• Home design: Residential manufactured single-wide; One-story
• Construction: Built in 1971; Piers foundation
• Exterior features: Aluminum exterior; Waterfront property with interior lake access (Smallwood Lake); Frontage approximately 101 feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 on the main level (11 x 8); Bedroom 2 on the main level (9 x 8)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level (approx. 7 x 8)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms; Microwave; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $806 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 6.3% in Gladwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Gladwin Community Schools (town): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #232 of 540 in MI (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Gladwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gladwin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.09%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $55,784
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 34.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
Spencer Dr	0.57mi	2/1.0	532 (-11%)	13mo	$55,000	$103	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $39,216
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $100,305
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48624

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,633 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $708/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $806

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $849	-5% $828	+0% $806	+5% $785	+10% $764
Rent	-10% $677	-5% $742	+0% $806	+5% $871	+10% $936
Rate	-1.0pp $844	-0.5pp $826	base $806	+0.5pp $787	+1.0pp $767

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $75,000 Active 205-char remark
18. 2025-12-17
    historical
19. 2025-07-16
    listed $79,900 Active
20. 2009-11-20
    soldstatus $57,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $931 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$224/yr (+$19/mo · 31.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$708
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,568
• − Management: −$1,568
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $8,994
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,159
• After-tax cash flow: $7,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gladwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2615990
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,917
• Composite: 32.93/100
• National rank: #5595
• State rank: #232 of 540 in MI

Livability — Gladwin

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #6296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,269

Population outlook (Gladwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,440 people
• By 2030: 22,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 19,867 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 17,667 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 12,909 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 8,629 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gladwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.67%
• Current HPI: 238.0744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+29.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $57,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $708 · -56.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.