2047 Kepner Dr · Holiday, FL 34691

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1966 3,780 sqft lot Est $62k · 38% over $36/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

oWNER IS MOTIVATED AND IS CONSIDERING OWNER FINANCING . Well maintained mobile home in Buenal locationa. Central Location. Fenced. with Utility shed and washer and dryer. Enclosed Lanai. Make this your winter retreat. Close to all shopping, beaches, and medical facilities. Schedule you viewing.

Key facts

• 3,780 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1966

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual fees listed as $438
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Buena Vista Adventure Inc.); Monthly HOA approximately $36.50; Quarterly association fee of $109.50; Association approval required; Pets allowed; Street lights in community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; 3 carport spaces
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water available; No municipal water source listed; Sewer: Other
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces west; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a parcel under 1/4 acre (approx. 0.09 acres)
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Sidewalk; Outdoor storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Living room and dining room combined; Split bedroom layout; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 4.7% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $85k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.10%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $61,776
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2045 Melody Dr	0.04mi	2/1.5	624 (0%)	9mo	$61,500	$99	88
2025 Melody Dr	0.06mi	2/1.5	576 (-8%)	3mo	$87,500	$152	80
1702 Holiday Dr	0.41mi	2/1.5	624 (0%)	3mo	$51,000	$82	76
2050 Lullaby Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0	672 (+8%)	14mo	$70,000	$104	69
1852 Hoyle Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0	576 (-8%)	7mo	$55,000	$95	66
2020 Roselawn Dr	0.25mi	2/1.5	672 (+8%)	18mo	$89,000	$132	59
1843 Hoyle Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0	692 (+11%)	9mo	$50,000	$72	57
4244 Buena Vista Ln	0.31mi	2/1.0	700 (+12%)	6mo	$50,000	$71	56
1810 Speck Dr	0.34mi	1/1.0 (-1)	672 (+8%)	9mo	$91,500	$136	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $12,917
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $42,273
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34691

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,324 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,086/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $769

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2133 Melody Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	510	$1,078	$2.11	15d	1	0.09mi
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	24d	1	0.12mi
4318 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	24d	1	0.31mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,200	$1.69	5d	1	0.35mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit G Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	24d	1	0.39mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	15d	1	0.39mi
2122 Ranchita Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$1,399	$2.16	24d	1	0.41mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	2d	13	0.71mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	2d	9	0.77mi
5409 Oceanic Rd Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,225	$1.96	24d	1	1.20mi
5419 Oceanic Rd Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,200	$1.92	12d	1	1.21mi
5441 Oceanic Rd Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	24d	1	1.26mi
5603 Cheyenne Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	525	$1,100	$2.10	24d	1	1.46mi
5633 Golden Nugget Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,175	$1.96	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-01-11
   listed $85,000 Active
10. 2017-03-07
    soldstatus $36,000 Sold 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    oWNER IS MOTIVATED AND IS CONSIDERING OWNER FINANCING . Well maintained mobile home in Buenal locationa. Central Location. Fenced. with Utility shed and washer and dryer. Enclosed Lanai. Make this your winter retreat. Close to all shopping, beaches, and medical facilities. Schedule you viewing.

11. 2017-03-02
    status Pending 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    oWNER IS MOTIVATED AND IS CONSIDERING OWNER FINANCING . Well maintained mobile home in Buenal locationa. Central Location. Fenced. with Utility shed and washer and dryer. Enclosed Lanai. Make this your winter retreat. Close to all shopping, beaches, and medical facilities. Schedule you viewing.

12. 2017-02-01
    listed $39,900 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    oWNER IS MOTIVATED AND IS CONSIDERING OWNER FINANCING . Well maintained mobile home in Buenal locationa. Central Location. Fenced. with Utility shed and washer and dryer. Enclosed Lanai. Make this your winter retreat. Close to all shopping, beaches, and medical facilities. Schedule you viewing.

13. 2016-05-27
    soldstatus $24,000 Sold 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    * * PRICE REDUCED * * Singlewide Mobile w/ Extended Bedroom and Glass Enclosed Porch Central Heat and Air. Two Sheds, one W/ Washer & Dryer. Fenced in Backyard Covered Parking. Close to Bus line. Tenant just Vacated was paying $550 per Month . EZ Rental or Snowbird Retreat Well maintained - move in ready fees paid quarterly @ $59.40 ; include garbage, street lights, and use of clubhouse. Split bedroom plan, large kitchen w/ double oven, lots of cabinets and storage closets.

14. 2016-05-23
    status Pending 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    * * PRICE REDUCED * * Singlewide Mobile w/ Extended Bedroom and Glass Enclosed Porch Central Heat and Air. Two Sheds, one W/ Washer & Dryer. Fenced in Backyard Covered Parking. Close to Bus line. Tenant just Vacated was paying $550 per Month . EZ Rental or Snowbird Retreat Well maintained - move in ready fees paid quarterly @ $59.40 ; include garbage, street lights, and use of clubhouse. Split bedroom plan, large kitchen w/ double oven, lots of cabinets and storage closets.

15. 2016-05-03
    price $25,900 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    * * PRICE REDUCED * * Singlewide Mobile w/ Extended Bedroom and Glass Enclosed Porch Central Heat and Air. Two Sheds, one W/ Washer & Dryer. Fenced in Backyard Covered Parking. Close to Bus line. Tenant just Vacated was paying $550 per Month . EZ Rental or Snowbird Retreat Well maintained - move in ready fees paid quarterly @ $59.40 ; include garbage, street lights, and use of clubhouse. Split bedroom plan, large kitchen w/ double oven, lots of cabinets and storage closets.

16. 2016-04-25
    price $29,900 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    * * PRICE REDUCED * * Singlewide Mobile w/ Extended Bedroom and Glass Enclosed Porch Central Heat and Air. Two Sheds, one W/ Washer & Dryer. Fenced in Backyard Covered Parking. Close to Bus line. Tenant just Vacated was paying $550 per Month . EZ Rental or Snowbird Retreat Well maintained - move in ready fees paid quarterly @ $59.40 ; include garbage, street lights, and use of clubhouse. Split bedroom plan, large kitchen w/ double oven, lots of cabinets and storage closets.

17. 2016-04-05
    status Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    * * PRICE REDUCED * * Singlewide Mobile w/ Extended Bedroom and Glass Enclosed Porch Central Heat and Air. Two Sheds, one W/ Washer & Dryer. Fenced in Backyard Covered Parking. Close to Bus line. Tenant just Vacated was paying $550 per Month . EZ Rental or Snowbird Retreat Well maintained - move in ready fees paid quarterly @ $59.40 ; include garbage, street lights, and use of clubhouse. Split bedroom plan, large kitchen w/ double oven, lots of cabinets and storage closets.

18. 2016-04-04
    historical Contingent - Inspections 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    * * PRICE REDUCED * * Singlewide Mobile w/ Extended Bedroom and Glass Enclosed Porch Central Heat and Air. Two Sheds, one W/ Washer & Dryer. Fenced in Backyard Covered Parking. Close to Bus line. Tenant just Vacated was paying $550 per Month . EZ Rental or Snowbird Retreat Well maintained - move in ready fees paid quarterly @ $59.40 ; include garbage, street lights, and use of clubhouse. Split bedroom plan, large kitchen w/ double oven, lots of cabinets and storage closets.

19. 2016-03-31
    listed $32,900 Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    * * PRICE REDUCED * * Singlewide Mobile w/ Extended Bedroom and Glass Enclosed Porch Central Heat and Air. Two Sheds, one W/ Washer & Dryer. Fenced in Backyard Covered Parking. Close to Bus line. Tenant just Vacated was paying $550 per Month . EZ Rental or Snowbird Retreat Well maintained - move in ready fees paid quarterly @ $59.40 ; include garbage, street lights, and use of clubhouse. Split bedroom plan, large kitchen w/ double oven, lots of cabinets and storage closets.

20. 2005-12-29
    soldstatus $44,400
21. 2005-10-08
    listed $46,900
22. 2005-02-01
    listed $47,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,086 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,086 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,086
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,271
• − Management: −$1,271
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $4,168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,000
• After-tax cash flow: $4,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,232
• Household income: $50,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.84%
• Current HPI: 326.9843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+77.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-11 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-07 Sold (MLS) $36,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-01 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-27 Sold (MLS) $24,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-03 Price Changed $25,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-25 Price Changed $29,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-04 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-31 Listed $32,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-29 Sold (MLS) $44,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-08 Listed $46,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-01 Listed $47,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,086 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.