11506 Addison Chase Dr · Riverview, FL 33579

$378,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,412 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 2006 5,500 sqft lot $45/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious two-story single-family home located in the Summerfield Village community with a flexible and well-defined floor plan and new roof as of January 2026. The layout includes multiple living areas such as a formal living room, formal dining room, great room, and an additional den or office, providing versatility for everyday living. Interior features include ceiling fans, walk-in closets, and an inside utility room. Covered outdoor areas offer space to enjoy the backyard. Situated within a deed-restricted neighborhood, this home provides a balance of interior space and outdoor appeal.

Key facts

• Den or office
• Formal dining room
• Two-story home

Tags

• TWO-STORY HOME
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• GREAT ROOM
• DEN OR OFFICE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $378k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-266 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $326k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summerfield Elementary School (math 39% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 807 students, 60% FRL); Riverview High School (math 37% / reading 50%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,599 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 463 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $72k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $326,115 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.02%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.42% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-58,217
• Equity at exit: $83,664

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-71,373
• Equity at exit: $81,547

Cash invested: $105,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33579

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 463
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,261 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,982
• Tax from tax record: −$658 /mo · $7,893/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$685
• Net cashflow: $-266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,598

Max offer price $330,974

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-52	-5% $-159	+0% $-266	+5% $-373	+10% $-480
Rent	-10% $-524	-5% $-395	+0% $-266	+5% $-137	+10% $-9
Rate	-1.0pp $-76	-0.5pp $-170	base $-266	+0.5pp $-364	+1.0pp $-464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,500
• Closing costs: $11,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11543 Addison Chase Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	3118	$3,300	$1.06	20d	1	0.05mi
11412 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	5.0	4.0	2523	$3,200	$1.27	26d	1	0.26mi
11328 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	3.5	2532	$2,600	$1.03	12d	1	0.35mi
13016 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2506	$3,500	$1.40	26d	1	0.57mi
11716 Navajo Sandstone St Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2450	$2,900	$1.18	7d	1	0.62mi
13423 Beechberry Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2322	$2,795	$1.20	0d	1	0.63mi
11721 Sunburst Marble Rd Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	3704	$3,200	$0.86	26d	1	0.91mi
11211 Flora Springs Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2320	$2,723	$1.17	26d	1	0.91mi
13714 Artesa Bell Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	4.5	3453	$3,300	$0.96	26d	1	1.00mi
12036 Cardinal Flower Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2542	$2,590	$1.02	13d	1	1.01mi
13316 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	2497	$3,200	$1.28	22d	1	1.10mi
13316 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	2497	$3,200	$1.28	26d	1	1.10mi
11510 Harlan Eddy Ct Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2351	$2,700	$1.15	26d	1	1.11mi
13655 Artesa Bell Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2351	$3,000	$1.28	0d	1	1.12mi
11514 Brighton Knoll Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	2759	$2,900	$1.05	14d	1	1.14mi
10905 Capstan Lake Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	3011	$2,800	$0.93	26d	1	1.16mi
12219 Fairlawn Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2498	$2,650	$1.06	20d	1	1.20mi
11106 Kempton Vista Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	3300	$3,100	$0.94	1d	1	1.21mi
10904 Summerton Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2977	$3,150	$1.06	5d	1	1.35mi
12109 Night Jasmine Cv Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2364	$3,150	$1.33	12d	1	1.42mi
11927 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	2320	$3,100	$1.34	7d	1	1.44mi
11322 Hascroft Forest Ct Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	3686	$3,800	$1.03	0d	1	1.46mi
11322 Hascroft Forest Ct Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	3686	$3,800	$1.03	7d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-22
   soldstatus $372,000 Closed
2. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-27
   price $378,000
4. 2026-03-06
   price $399,900
5. 2026-02-19
   price $425,000
6. 2026-02-02
   listed $449,900 Active
7. 2025-01-19
   historical $3,145
8. 2025-01-14
   price $3,145
9. 2025-01-04
   listed $3,195

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,893 · $658/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,893 · $658/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,174
• − Property taxes: −$7,893
• − Insurance: −$1,890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,131
• − Management: −$3,131
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$10,996
• Taxable loss: −$9,621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,309
• After-tax cash flow: $-885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,470
• Household income: $116,134
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 258.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 24% Two or more races 19% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% British 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Current HPI: 240.5825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+11543.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Sold (MLS) $372,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $378,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $399,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $425,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listed $449,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-19 Rental Removed $3,145 RENT.
• 2025-01-14 Price Changed $3,145 RENT.
• 2025-01-04 Listed for Rent $3,195 RENT.

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,893 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.