4308 Butterscothch Cir · Lakeland, FL 33811

$264,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,464 sqft · Townhouse · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,178 sqft lot $124/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. This spacious townhome features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. As you enter the foyer you are welcomed with powder room, spacious kitchen, dining area and a living room overlooking. The well-appointed kitchen features an island with bar seating, plentiful cabinets, counter space and stainless-steel appliances, making entertaining a breeze. As we head upstairs, you are greeted with a landing area and linen closet. Bedroom one is located just off the landing area and includes a spacious walk-in closet as well as ensuite bathroom with double vanity. The second floor is complete with two guest bedrooms, an additional bathroom, along with laundry closet. This popular townhome feat

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Plentiful cabinets
• Counter space

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• ISLAND WITH BAR SEATING
• PLENTIFUL CABINETS
• COUNTER SPACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Living area reported by builder: 1,464 (builder source); Total rooms: 6; Lot approx. 0.05 acres (about 202 sq meters); Permit number BLD25-05087
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $1,389; Total annual taxes (2025): $2,056; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Leland Management, Inc; Monthly HOA fee $124 (includes pool and recreational facilities); Community amenities: Clubhouse, Fitness Center, Playground, Pool, Dog Park, Park, Sidewalks, Street Lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Water connected
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Under construction (projected completion May 7, 2026); Two stories; North-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: D.R. Horton (Model: Pearson); Builder license CBC1265174
• Exterior features: Lighting; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; City limits; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and central air; Electric heat pump
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Stone counters; Programmable thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry in a laundry closet on the upper level; Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $265k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. Bruce Wagner Elementary School (math 54% / reading 42%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 946 students, 46% FRL); George W. Jenkins Senior High (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,451 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $233,542 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-56,644
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-84,317
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33811

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,974/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$124
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,474

Max offer price $249,029

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $-18	+0% $-110	+5% $-201	+10% $-293
Rent	-10% $-294	-5% $-202	+0% $-110	+5% $-17	+10% $75
Rate	-1.0pp $24	-0.5pp $-42	base $-110	+0.5pp $-178	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3978 White Ibis Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1711	$2,395	$1.40	15d	1	0.67mi
5765 Arlington River Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,199	$1.32	4d	1	0.67mi
3883 White Ibis Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	1628	$1,998	$1.23	3d	1	0.89mi
3798 White Ibis Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,395	$1.40	20d	1	0.95mi
4505 Breccia Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,029	$1.32	15d	1	1.19mi
5340 Song Sparrow Ct Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1701	$2,076	$1.22	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $124 · $1,488/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $264,900 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $264,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $264,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $264,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $264,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $268,990 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $268,990 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-05-08
   price $268,990
9. 2026-04-24
   listed $267,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$3,974
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,242
• − Management: −$2,242
• − HOA: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$5,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,390
• After-tax cash flow: $73/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This newly constructed townhome is move-in ready with no visible signs of wear or damage. It offers a spacious layout with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,472
• Household income: $90,263
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 477.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.57%
• Current HPI: 309.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $268,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $267,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid