811 Elizabeth Ln · Lakeland, FL 33809

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 212 Days on market

Built 1977 6,930 sqft lot $285/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SOLD AS IS WITH RIGHT TO INSPECT. GREATROOM WITH SEPARATE FAMILYROOM, CIRCULAR KITCHEN, LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY/STORAGE. FL ROOM, LARGE UTILTY. WELL MAINTAINED HOME IN GREAT COMMUNITY IN THE CITY LIMITS.

Key facts

• Fishing pier
• Private boat ramp
• Private lake access

Tags

• PRIVATE LAKE ACCESS
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• FISHING PIER
• HEATED POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment installed; Unfurnished; Living area approximately 1,344 sq ft; Lot about 0.16 acre (approx. 644 m²)
• Financial info: Total annual fees approximately $3,420
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly fee $285; HOA covers cable TV, internet, pool, sewer, water, trash, common area taxes, maintenance of structure and grounds, recreational facilities, escrow reserves fund; Community clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, shuffleboard court; Community features include buyer approval required, community mailbox, golf carts permitted; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs), maximum pet weight 30 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; High-speed internet available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces west
• Construction: Metal siding; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Side porch; Boat ramp (private); Fishing pier; City limits; Near public transit; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Window treatments; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $110k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.68%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-5,665
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,151
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,678 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,038/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$285
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,364

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5233 US Highway 98 N Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,505	$1.89	3d	15	0.36mi
907 Swann Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,960	$1.22	14d	1	0.49mi
733 Carpenters Way #37 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1307	$1,400	$1.07	19d	1	0.56mi
5227 Grace St E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,775	$1.67	23d	1	0.58mi
1510 Galloway Oaks Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,376	$1.29	21d	8	0.68mi
4048 Chelsea Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,320	$1.37	3d	1	0.74mi
3939 Golf Village Loop Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,619	$1.84	3d	6	0.88mi
1545 Kennedy Blvd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,682	$1.69	3d	24	0.90mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr #106 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1038	$1,700	$1.64	23d	1	0.91mi
4500 Williamstown Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,508	$1.42	23d	1	0.91mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1083	$1,450	$1.34	14d	2	0.91mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	14d	1	1.08mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	23d	1	1.08mi
4083 Dover Terrace Dr Unit 4083 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,975	$1.12	23d	1	1.10mi
3805 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,900	$1.07	14d	1	1.21mi
5818 Bambi Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,200	$1.57	23d	1	1.21mi
909 Shirley Ann Trl Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,460	$1.54	23d	1	1.23mi
3824 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,795	$1.01	3d	1	1.23mi
3867 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,795	$1.10	3d	1	1.24mi
6031 Crafton Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,125	$1.23	14d	1	1.25mi
6120 Burnett St Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,910	$1.91	3d	21	1.25mi
206 Mary Catherine Ct Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,725	$1.38	23d	1	1.25mi
6032 Norton Rd Unit 6032 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,295	$1.47	23d	1	1.27mi
3842 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,800	$1.10	14d	1	1.27mi
6131 Doe Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,700	$1.26	14d	1	1.28mi
165 Shannon Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	3d	1	1.33mi
3685 Victoria Manor Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1154	$1,507	$1.31	3d	17	1.33mi
4111 Solamor St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,400	$1.48	14d	1	1.40mi
124 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,550	$1.50	3d	1	1.41mi
114 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,450	$1.40	23d	1	1.42mi
235 Leelon Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	921	$1,295	$1.41	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $285 · $3,420/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 211 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-05-25
    status Active
15. 2026-05-14
    status Pending
16. 2026-05-10
    price $110,000
17. 2026-04-02
    status Active
18. 2026-03-26
    status Pending
19. 2026-01-04
    price $139,000
20. 2025-12-04
    price $149,000
21. 2025-10-31
    listed $165,000 Active
22. 2007-09-10
    soldstatus $69,900
23. 2007-09-06
    soldstatus $69,900 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    SOLD AS IS WITH RIGHT TO INSPECT. GREATROOM WITH SEPARATE FAMILYROOM, CIRCULAR KITCHEN, LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY/STORAGE. FL ROOM, LARGE UTILTY. WELL MAINTAINED HOME IN GREAT COMMUNITY IN THE CITY LIMITS.

24. 2007-07-03
    listed $74,900 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    SOLD AS IS WITH RIGHT TO INSPECT. GREATROOM WITH SEPARATE FAMILYROOM, CIRCULAR KITCHEN, LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY/STORAGE. FL ROOM, LARGE UTILTY. WELL MAINTAINED HOME IN GREAT COMMUNITY IN THE CITY LIMITS.

25. 2004-03-03
    soldstatus $49,900
26. 2003-01-13
    soldstatus $44,500
27. 1997-04-04
    soldstatus $48,000
28. 1990-02-01
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,038 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,038 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$2,038
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − HOA: −$3,420
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $1,548
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$371
• After-tax cash flow: $2,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+144.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records
• 2007-09-06 Sold (MLS) $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-03 Listed $74,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 2003-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records
• 1997-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1990-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,038 · +334.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.