15 Caney Ct · Riverside, TX 77320

$49,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 788 sqft · Manufactured public records · 104 Days on market

Built 2005 2.10 ac lot $62/sqft · waterfront premium Est $44k · 11% over · waterfront $4/mo HOA ↓ 35% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2.1 Acres with Mobile Home included. Flooded once, needs work. 2 bedroom, 1 Bath with a covered porch. Detached Carport. Has Septic & Community Water. Fish from your own yard that backs up to Harmon Creek. Nice relaxing area with a private subdivision boat ramp and fishing area. Short drive to Huntsville State Park, Sam Houston State University, & everything Huntsville offers.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Detached carport
• Septic

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• DETACHED CARPORT
• SEPTIC
• COMMUNITY WATER
• PRIVATE SUBDIVISION BOAT RAMP
• FISHING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 4.4% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,150 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Huntsville ISD (town): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #621 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Texas Online Preparatory El (math 25% / reading 41%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 1,334 students, 63% FRL); Texas Online Preparatory Middle (math 31% / reading 58%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 1,941 students, 58% FRL); Texas Online Preparatory H S (math 23% / reading 75%, grade D, #553 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 2,100 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 520 active listings in the ZIP; 527 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 93% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.49%
• DSCR: 3.07
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $44,022
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: 11.31%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $17,923
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $48,866
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77320

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 520
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,136 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,014/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $622

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $434	-5% $420	+0% $406	+5% $392	+10% $379
Rent	-10% $317	-5% $361	+0% $406	+5% $451	+10% $496
Rate	-1.0pp $431	-0.5pp $419	base $406	+0.5pp $394	+1.0pp $381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $49,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,000 Active 82 DOM
19. 2026-05-12
    price $49,000 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    2.1 Acres with Mobile Home included. Flooded once, needs work. 2 bedroom, 1 Bath with a covered porch. Detached Carport. Has Septic & Community Water. Fish from your own yard that backs up to Harmon Creek. Nice relaxing area with a private subdivision boat ramp and fishing area. Short drive to Huntsville State Park, Sam Houston State University, & everything Huntsville offers.

20. 2026-03-18
    price $55,000 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    2.1 Acres with Mobile Home included. Flooded once, needs work. 2 bedroom, 1 Bath with a covered porch. Detached Carport. Has Septic & Community Water. Fish from your own yard that backs up to Harmon Creek. Nice relaxing area with a private subdivision boat ramp and fishing area. Short drive to Huntsville State Park, Sam Houston State University, & everything Huntsville offers.

21. 2026-03-10
    listed $59,000 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    2.1 Acres with Mobile Home included. Flooded once, needs work. 2 bedroom, 1 Bath with a covered porch. Detached Carport. Has Septic & Community Water. Fish from your own yard that backs up to Harmon Creek. Nice relaxing area with a private subdivision boat ramp and fishing area. Short drive to Huntsville State Park, Sam Houston State University, & everything Huntsville offers.

22. 2026-03-09
    historical
23. 2026-03-07
    listed $59,000 Active
24. 2025-11-01
    historical
25. 2025-08-04
    price $99,900
26. 2025-07-14
    price $140,000
27. 2025-05-14
    listed $150,000 Active
28. 2017-01-30
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2017-01-30
    status Pending
30. 2017-01-19
    status Option Pending
31. 2017-01-04
    price $55,000
32. 2016-11-16
    listed $75,900 Active
33. 2016-09-26
    historical
34. 2016-04-26
    status Active
35. 2016-04-25
    historical
36. 2015-09-18
    listed $75,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,014 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,014 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 93% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$1,014
• − Insurance: −$1,748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,090
• − Management: −$1,090
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $4,471
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,073
• After-tax cash flow: $3,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huntsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824030
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,597
• Composite: 25.71/100
• National rank: #7383
• State rank: #621 of 826 in TX

Livability — Riverside

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1150
• US rank: #20204

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walker County · 75,669 people
• City population: 634
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,152
• Household income: $55,663
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1030.0

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 77,602 people
• By 2030: 82,007 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 90,436 · +16.5%
• By 2050: 100,240 · +29.2%
• By 2075: 123,667 · +59.4%
• By 2100: 135,073 · +74.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.0) · D 29.6% · R 69.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.48%
• Current HPI: 190.199
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-35.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $49,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $55,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $59,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $59,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2017-01-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-01-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-01-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-01-04 Price Changed $55,000 HARMLS
• 2016-11-16 Listed $75,900 HARMLS
• 2016-09-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-04-26 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2016-04-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-09-18 Listed $75,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,014 · +31.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.