7890 S Whitewing Dr Dr · Willow Valley, AZ 86440

$192,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Land public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1985 4,403 sqft lot $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Weekender home. 2 bed 2 bath with Covered Parking. Ready to move in and start your Colorado River fun! Located in Willow Valley Community which has a Boat Launch, Docks, and Private beaches on the Colorado River. Come on down and enjoy our great River Lifestyle!!

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• 4,403 sq ft lot
• Built 1985

Tags

• BEACH AND BOAT LAUNCH ACCESS
• FULLY FENCED
• PRIVATE RIVER RETREAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $210 (about $17.50/month); Community clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Electricity available; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single wide
• Construction: Rolled/hot mop roof
• Exterior features: Fenced front yard; Fenced back yard; No pool; R1 single-family residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Manufactured home configuration (single wide)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Accessible full bathroom; Solid surface counters; Walk-in shower
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $192k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#170 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, schools F.
• Colorado River Union High School District (4381) (town): math 13% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #213 of 249 in AZ (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 217 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 13% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $192k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.04%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $122,026
• Equity at exit: $173,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.41×
• Total profit: $345,600
• Equity at exit: $373,985

Cash invested: $53,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86440

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,009
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $518/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,457

Max offer price $192,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,125
• Closing costs: $5,775
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7866 S Meadowlark St Mohave Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	13d	1	0.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-03-02
   price $192,500
2. 2025-12-14
   price $200,000
3. 2025-12-05
   listed $170,000 Active
4. 2025-06-27
   price $170,000
5. 2025-02-11
   price $185,000
6. 2024-10-30
   listed $200,000 Active
7. 2018-05-23
   soldstatus $60,000 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Great Weekender home. 2 bed 2 bath with Covered Parking. Ready to move in and start your Colorado River fun! Located in Willow Valley Community which has a Boat Launch, Docks, and Private beaches on the Colorado River. Come on down and enjoy our great River Lifestyle!!

8. 2018-05-23
   soldstatus $60,000

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Great Weekender home. 2 bed 2 bath with Covered Parking. Ready to move in and start your Colorado River fun! Located in Willow Valley Community which has a Boat Launch, Docks, and Private beaches on the Colorado River. Come on down and enjoy our great River Lifestyle!!

9. 2018-05-23
   soldstatus $60,000

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Great Weekender home. 2 bed 2 bath with Covered Parking. Ready to move in and start your Colorado River fun! Located in Willow Valley Community which has a Boat Launch, Docks, and Private beaches on the Colorado River. Come on down and enjoy our great River Lifestyle!!

10. 2017-10-23
    listed $72,500 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Great Weekender home. 2 bed 2 bath with Covered Parking. Ready to move in and start your Colorado River fun! Located in Willow Valley Community which has a Boat Launch, Docks, and Private beaches on the Colorado River. Come on down and enjoy our great River Lifestyle!!

11. 2017-07-25
    soldstatus $30,000
12. 2017-01-24
    listed $35,000
13. 2015-10-10
    listed $62,000
14. 2003-11-14
    soldstatus $68,000
15. 2001-06-11
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $518 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,270 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$752/yr (+$63/mo · 145.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥117°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,783
• − Property taxes: −$518
• − Insurance: −$962
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$5,600
• Taxable income: $64
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15
• After-tax cash flow: $3,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Colorado River Union High School District (4381)
• NCES district ID: 0400082
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,132
• Composite: 12.72/100
• National rank: #9603
• State rank: #213 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Willow Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #18589

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow Valley, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 8,403

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.05%
• Current HPI: 322.7772
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+381.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $192,500 WARDEX
• 2025-12-14 Price Changed $200,000 WARDEX
• 2025-12-05 Listed $170,000 WARDEX
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $170,000 WARDEX
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $185,000 WARDEX
• 2024-10-30 Listed $200,000 WARDEX
• 2018-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-23 Sold (MLS) $60,000 WARDEX
• 2017-10-23 Listed $72,500 WARDEX
• 2017-07-25 Sold (MLS) $30,000 WARDEX
• 2017-01-24 Listed $35,000 WARDEX
• 2015-10-10 Listed $62,000 WARDEX
• 2003-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2001-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $518 · +15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.