630 S 21st St · Paducah, KY 42001

$59,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1932 9,148 sqft lot $59/sqft · 33% below area Est $89k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Electrical has been completely roughed-in. New Metal Roof. New Windows. The clean-up and work has been started, now you can finish it!! Endless Possibilities.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• New windows
• 9,148 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 4.5% in Paducah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#197 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Paducah Independent (town): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #122 of 165 in KY (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $60k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.22%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,214
• List price: $59,900
• Delta: -32.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
828 S 21 St	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-2%)	7mo	$125,000	$125	83
926 S 21st St	0.15mi	2/1.0	1,102 (+8%)	4mo	$79,000	$72	76
2827 Cornell St	0.62mi	2/1.0	994 (-2%)	0mo	$144,500	$145	67
2328 Center St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-6%)	4mo	$158,000	$165	58
2317 S 28th St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+4%)	7mo	$120,000	$114	57
2332 Center St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-6%)	6mo	$128,400	$134	56
2936 Cornell St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+6%)	5mo	$94,000	$87	46
2403 Monroe St	0.75mi	2/1.0	1,118 (+10%)	6mo	$162,500	$145	43
2115 Monroe St	0.69mi	2/1.0	888 (-13%)	7mo	$97,000	$109	41
3001 Georgia St	0.75mi	2/1.0	900 (-11%)	7mo	$54,000	$60	40
2905 Old Mayfield Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,130 (+11%)	2mo	$165,000	$146	37
2122 Madison St	0.74mi	2/1.0	868 (-15%)	6mo	$139,000	$160	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $27,864
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.33×
• Total profit: $72,594
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42001

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,199 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $211/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $451

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1900 Jefferson St Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,400	$1.75	43d	1	0.56mi
1643 Monroe St Apt A Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	1127	$1,250	$1.11	43d	1	0.72mi
2741 Trimble St Unit 27195 Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$725	$0.85	43d	1	1.16mi
2967 Harrison St Paducah, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$915	$1.26	43d	1	1.20mi
2991 Clay St Unit 06 Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	974	$715	$0.73	43d	1	1.25mi
415 N 6th St #100 Paducah, KY	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,900 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,900 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,900 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,900 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    price $59,900 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Electrical has been completely roughed-in. New Metal Roof. New Windows. The clean-up and work has been started, now you can finish it!! Endless Possibilities.

17. 2026-02-17
    price $63,900 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Electrical has been completely roughed-in. New Metal Roof. New Windows. The clean-up and work has been started, now you can finish it!! Endless Possibilities.

18. 2026-02-05
    price $64,000 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Electrical has been completely roughed-in. New Metal Roof. New Windows. The clean-up and work has been started, now you can finish it!! Endless Possibilities.

19. 2026-02-03
    price $64,500 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Electrical has been completely roughed-in. New Metal Roof. New Windows. The clean-up and work has been started, now you can finish it!! Endless Possibilities.

20. 2026-01-12
    listed $65,000 Active 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Electrical has been completely roughed-in. New Metal Roof. New Windows. The clean-up and work has been started, now you can finish it!! Endless Possibilities.

21. 2005-10-12
    soldstatus $20,000
22. 1977-04-01
    soldstatus $15,415

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $211 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $515 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$304/yr (+$25/mo · 143.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$211
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,151
• − Management: −$1,151
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $6,473
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,553
• After-tax cash flow: $5,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paducah Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104650
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $30,067
• Composite: 23.41/100
• National rank: #7896
• State rank: #122 of 165 in KY

Livability — Paducah

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #9780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paducah, KY
• County: McCracken County · 30,856 people
• City population: 30,856
• Metro: Paducah, KY-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,856
• Household income: $71,365
• Rent vs Own: 36.5% rent · 63.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1001.0

Population outlook (McCracken County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,237 people
• By 2030: 63,468 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 61,221 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 58,432 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 52,668 · -18.0%
• By 2100: 44,517 · -30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McCracken

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.9% · R 66.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.2 2012: R+32.5 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.23%
• Current HPI: 258.1706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Paducah, KY-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+288.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $59,900 WKRMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $63,900 WKRMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $64,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $64,500 WKRMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $65,000 WKRMLS
• 2005-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1977-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,415 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $211 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.