9915 Richwood Ln · Jasmine Estates, FL 34668

$195,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1979 5,857 sqft lot Est $188k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2 bedroom 1 bath starter home. 1 car garage, nice back yard close to transportation and all of the convenience of Port Richey. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property.

Key facts

• 5,857 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1979

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential zoning (R3)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single Family Residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.13-acre lot
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($149/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Jasmine Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#555 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fox Hollow Elementary School (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 97%, 653 students, 88% FRL); Chasco Middle School (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 688 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 48% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 582 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $195k implies a 474% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,861 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,232
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7804 Fox Hollow Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0	744 (0%)	2mo	$222,500	$299	88
9840 Crofton Ln	0.40mi	2/1.0	744 (0%)	0mo	$190,000	$255	81
9640 Mark Twain Ln	0.26mi	2/1.0	744 (0%)	13mo	$200,000	$269	77
8422 Paxton Dr	0.44mi	2/1.0	744 (0%)	7mo	$188,000	$253	74
9829 Crofton Ln	0.39mi	2/1.0	840 (+13%)	3mo	$215,000	$256	58
9744 Rainelle Ln	0.31mi	2/1.0	846 (+14%)	8mo	$200,000	$236	56
8434 Luray Dr	0.53mi	2/1.0	846 (+14%)	3mo	$168,000	$199	50
8012 Durham Dr	0.55mi	2/1.0	840 (+13%)	14mo	$178,000	$212	42
10029 Freestone Ln	0.66mi	2/1.0	840 (+13%)	10mo	$239,900	$286	40
8525 Fox Hollow Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0	846 (+14%)	15mo	$212,000	$251	39
7311 Brentwood Dr	0.69mi	2/1.0	846 (+14%)	9mo	$200,000	$236	37
10028 Kingswood Ln	0.68mi	2/1.5	840 (+13%)	10mo	$205,000	$244	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-33,600
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-39,309
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 582
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,629 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,044/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,613

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $68	+0% $12	+5% $-43	+10% $-98
Rent	-10% $-116	-5% $-52	+0% $12	+5% $77	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $62	base $12	+0.5pp $-38	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9615 Gray Fox Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,550	$2.08	5d	1	0.28mi
8422 Paxton Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,800	$2.42	26d	1	0.47mi
8940 Miguel Pl Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	720	$1,285	$1.78	0d	10	0.98mi
7110 Tudor Ln Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	676	$1,310	$1.94	26d	1	1.18mi
7110 Tudor Ln Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	676	$1,310	$1.94	4d	1	1.18mi
7213 Seward Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	26d	1	1.48mi
9110 Saint Clair Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$2,100	$2.88	26d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $195,000 Active
3. 2014-10-29
   soldstatus $34,000 Sold 176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (176 chars)

   Charming 2 bedroom 1 bath starter home. 1 car garage, nice back yard close to transportation and all of the convenience of Port Richey. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property.

4. 2014-10-14
   status Pending 176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (176 chars)

   Charming 2 bedroom 1 bath starter home. 1 car garage, nice back yard close to transportation and all of the convenience of Port Richey. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property.

5. 2014-09-12
   price $37,500 176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (176 chars)

   Charming 2 bedroom 1 bath starter home. 1 car garage, nice back yard close to transportation and all of the convenience of Port Richey. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property.

6. 2014-09-08
   status Active 176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (176 chars)

   Charming 2 bedroom 1 bath starter home. 1 car garage, nice back yard close to transportation and all of the convenience of Port Richey. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property.

7. 2014-07-31
   status Pending 176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (176 chars)

   Charming 2 bedroom 1 bath starter home. 1 car garage, nice back yard close to transportation and all of the convenience of Port Richey. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property.

8. 2014-06-30
   listed $39,500 Active 176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (176 chars)

   Charming 2 bedroom 1 bath starter home. 1 car garage, nice back yard close to transportation and all of the convenience of Port Richey. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property.

9. 2002-10-04
   soldstatus $55,000
10. 1999-01-07
    soldstatus $37,600
11. 1996-10-15
    soldstatus $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,044 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,044 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,044
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,563
• − Management: −$1,563
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,199
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$768
• After-tax cash flow: $916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jasmine Estates

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #10561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasmine Estates, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+413.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-29 Sold (MLS) $34,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-12 Price Changed $37,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-30 Listed $39,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1999-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $37,600 Public Records
• 1996-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,044 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.