1395 Tillery Branch Rd · Marshall, NC 28753

$265,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1976 1.75 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Older home in a private setting. Great yard, additional building site and easy access to shopping in Weaverville and Marshall. Awesome covered front porch. This one will take some TLC but will be well worth the investment. A short distance to the French Broad River for the fishing and rafting enthusiasts.

Key facts

• Brand new kitchen
• New flooring
• Wooded acres

Tags

• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• WOODED ACRES
• COVERED PATIO
• FULL FOUNDATION REINFORCEMENT
• NEW MINI-SPLIT HVAC UNITS
• NEW FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with 4 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Site built
• Construction: Wood construction; Other exterior materials (see remarks); Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: 1.75-acre lot; Gravel and paved road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Wood burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-278 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (38.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (38.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.1% in Marshall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#182 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #55 of 178 in NC (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Brush Creek Elementary (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #205 of 1,410 statewide, top 16%, 333 students, 58% FRL); Madison Middle School (math 44% / reading 56%, grade C, #113 of 475 statewide, top 25%, 452 students, 57% FRL); Madison High School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #270 of 535 statewide, top 52%, 414 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 209 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,822 (38.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.49%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $126,499
• Equity at exit: $238,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $386,136
• Equity at exit: $514,837

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28753

• Home prices YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,618 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $671/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,970

Max offer price $215,955

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-128	-5% $-203	+0% $-278	+5% $-353	+10% $-428
Rent	-10% $-405	-5% $-342	+0% $-278	+5% $-214	+10% $-150
Rate	-1.0pp $-144	-0.5pp $-210	base $-278	+0.5pp $-346	+1.0pp $-416

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $265,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $265,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $265,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $275,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $275,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 7 DOM
18. 2026-05-23
    listed $275,000 Active
19. 2026-03-03
    price $265,000
20. 2026-02-11
    price $275,000
21. 2025-12-30
    price $285,000
22. 2025-08-28
    listed $299,999 Active
23. 2023-12-06
    soldstatus $225,000 Closed 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Older home in a private setting. Great yard, additional building site and easy access to shopping in Weaverville and Marshall. Awesome covered front porch. This one will take some TLC but will be well worth the investment. A short distance to the French Broad River for the fishing and rafting enthusiasts.

24. 2023-12-06
    soldstatus $225,000

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Older home in a private setting. Great yard, additional building site and easy access to shopping in Weaverville and Marshall. Awesome covered front porch. This one will take some TLC but will be well worth the investment. A short distance to the French Broad River for the fishing and rafting enthusiasts.

25. 2023-11-02
    historical Active Under Contract 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Older home in a private setting. Great yard, additional building site and easy access to shopping in Weaverville and Marshall. Awesome covered front porch. This one will take some TLC but will be well worth the investment. A short distance to the French Broad River for the fishing and rafting enthusiasts.

26. 2023-10-01
    listed $250,000 Active 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Older home in a private setting. Great yard, additional building site and easy access to shopping in Weaverville and Marshall. Awesome covered front porch. This one will take some TLC but will be well worth the investment. A short distance to the French Broad River for the fishing and rafting enthusiasts.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $671 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,502/yr (+$125/mo · 223.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,419
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$671
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$8,238
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,977
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702820
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,050
• Composite: 44.62/100
• National rank: #2774
• State rank: #55 of 178 in NC

Livability — Marshall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #9259

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,778

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,646 people
• By 2030: 21,839 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 22,031 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 22,050 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 22,327 · +3.1%
• By 2100: 21,365 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.5% · R 61.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.6pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+25.9 2012: R+9.1 2008: R+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.22%
• Current HPI: 305.7339
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+10.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $275,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $265,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $275,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $285,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-28 Listed $299,999 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-06 Sold (MLS) $225,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-02 Contingent — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-01 Listed $250,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2023): $671 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.