1815 NE 16th Way · Gainesville, FL 32609

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 852 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1940 4,792 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Brand new roof as of February 2026. The interior is a blank slate just waiting for your creative personal touch. Close to shopping, the University of Florida and only 1 hour from Jacksonville and the beaches.

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 26 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RMF5; Lot approximately 0.11 acre (50x100, cleared); Road surface: Asphalt; Development: Seola
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; No home warranty
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: No parking information listed
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition; One story; Southeast facing entry
• Construction: Block foundation; Other roof type
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; No cooling specified
• Interior features: No interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups or appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W. A. Metcalfe Elementary School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 478 students, 88% FRL); Eastside High School (math 29% / reading 56%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,220 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 48% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Alachua average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $95k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.04%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $20,225
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $68,339
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32609

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,804/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $871

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $587	-5% $560	+0% $533	+5% $506	+10% $479
Rent	-10% $411	-5% $472	+0% $533	+5% $594	+10% $655
Rate	-1.0pp $581	-0.5pp $557	base $533	+0.5pp $508	+1.0pp $483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-26
   listed $95,000 Active 209-char remark
2. 2021-06-29
   soldstatus $35,000
3. 2015-03-20
   historical
4. 2015-03-20
   historical
5. 2014-08-27
   soldstatus $20,500
6. 2014-03-04
   listed $30,000
7. 2010-04-16
   historical
8. 2010-03-30
   listed $65,500
9. 2008-07-09
   soldstatus $74,000
10. 2008-04-11
    listed $71,500
11. 2007-08-09
    historical
12. 2007-02-05
    listed $69,900
13. 2006-11-16
    listed $89,900
14. 2006-06-01
    soldstatus $96,000
15. 2006-04-20
    listed $94,900
16. 1987-03-01
    soldstatus $14,700
17. 1980-02-01
    soldstatus $19,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,804 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,804 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,804
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,484
• − Management: −$1,484
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $5,216
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,252
• After-tax cash flow: $5,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,752
• Household income: $49,406
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1037.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.25%
• Current HPI: 304.1951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+394.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Listed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-27 Sold (MLS) $20,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-04 Listed $30,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-30 Listed $65,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-09 Sold (MLS) $74,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-11 Listed $71,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-05 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-16 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-20 Listed $94,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,700 Public Records
• 1980-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,804 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.