2037 Browns Fork Rd · Hazard, KY 41701

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,747 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 2001 Fair condition 0.50 ac lot $83/sqft · 30% above area Est $112k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Convenient to downtown Hazard, 2021 doublewide on a fenced lot with storage buildings, garage, concrete driveway, large covered porch

Key facts

• Large covered porch
• Storage buildings
• Fenced lot

Tags

• FENCED LOT
• STORAGE BUILDINGS
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• LARGE COVERED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.9% in Hazard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#196 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Perry County (rural): math 23% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #96 of 165 in KY (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Perry County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.41%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,854
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 29.63%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-13,860
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $517
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41701

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,543 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,353

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $200	+0% $150	+5% $100	+10% $50
Rent	-10% $28	-5% $89	+0% $150	+5% $211	+10% $272
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $187	base $150	+0.5pp $113	+1.0pp $74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-03-25
   listed $145,000 Active 133-char remark

   Show marketing remark (133 chars)

   Convenient to downtown Hazard, 2021 doublewide on a fenced lot with storage buildings, garage, concrete driveway, large covered porch

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$487
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$117
• After-tax cash flow: $1,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, and a fresh coat of paint to improve its overall appearance. These updates would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of updating
• Minor kitchen flooring — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both replace bathroom fixtures and flooring — modernizing the bathroom would appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen flooring · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures and flooring — modernizing the bathroom would appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Perry County
• NCES district ID: 2104770
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $32,540
• Composite: 26.53/100
• National rank: #7196
• State rank: #96 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hazard

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #9701

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,646

Population outlook (Perry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,976 people
• By 2030: 23,390 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 20,270 · -18.8%
• By 2050: 17,547 · -29.7%
• By 2075: 12,599 · -49.6%
• By 2100: 9,358 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Perry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.5) · D 19.7% · R 79.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.5pp toward R · 2008: -32.0pp · 2024: -59.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.5 2020: R+54.3 2016: R+57.0 2012: R+58.5 2008: R+32.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.13%
• Current HPI: 143.629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $145,000 EKAR