41 2nd St · Cortez, FL 34210

$67,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 300 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1967 1,163 sqft lot Est $50k · 35% over $180/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in Paradise Bay! This 1BR/1BA mobile home is the perfect blank canvas for your vision and creativity. Flooded during the 2024 storms and now ready for renovation, this home offers an affordable chance to design the coastal retreat, seasonal getaway, or retirement escape you've always imagined. Located in the highly desirable Paradise Bay Estates, an active 55+ waterfront community on the shores of Sarasota Bay, residents enjoy an abundance of amenities and activities, including a heated pool, clubhouse, social events, live music, shuffleboard, and more. Spend your evenings watching spectacular sunsets over Longboat Key and Anna Maria Island, or simply relax and enjoy the

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Heated pool
• 1,163 sq ft lot

Tags

• HEATED POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• ACTIVE WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• PEACEFUL BAYFRONT LIFESTYLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Monthly HOA fee $180 (total monthly fees shown as $180); Total annual fees reported as $2,160
• HOA & community: Paradise Bay Estates HOA with required monthly fee of $180; HOA covers common area taxes, pool, fidelity bond, grounds maintenance, management, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and water; Association amenities: clubhouse, laundry, pool, spa/hot tub, pickleball courts, shuffleboard courts; Buyer/association approval required; Senior community with pet restrictions (cats allowed, limits on number and size)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer available
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); Residential property; Fixer condition; One story; Faces east; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal siding and frame construction; Metal roof; Built on a slab foundation; Approximately 630 total living area
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Slab foundation (interior access)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $67k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-330/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $62k (7.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $67k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 1.9% in Cortez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#486 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sea Breeze Elementary School (math 48% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 499 students, 74% FRL); W. D. Sugg Middle School (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #462 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,010 students, 72% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.1%/yr); 556 active listings in the ZIP; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,137 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.52%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $49,500
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10315 Cortez Rd W Unit 71-4	0.10mi	1/1.0	340 (+13%)	1mo	$56,000	$165	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-16,109
• Equity at exit: $9,990

10-year hold

• IRR: -87.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-29,726
• Equity at exit: $5,793

Cash invested: $18,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34210

• Rents YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 556
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,105/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,364

Max offer price $62,137

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10	-5% $-9	+0% $-28	+5% $-46	+10% $-65
Rent	-10% $-133	-5% $-80	+0% $-28	+5% $25	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $6	-0.5pp $-10	base $-28	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,750
• Closing costs: $2,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $67,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $67,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $67,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $67,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,105 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,105 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,753
• − Property taxes: −$1,105
• − Insurance: −$5,454
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,276
• − Management: −$1,276
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$1,949
• Taxable loss: −$1,018
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$244
• After-tax cash flow: $-86/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cortez

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #486
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cortez, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 759
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,682
• Household income: $64,244
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 895.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.68%
• Current HPI: 246.9247
• Rent YoY: ▼ -6.08%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+13.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $67,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,105 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.