3042 15th Ave S · Minneapolis, MN 55407

$224,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,856 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1908 6,969 sqft lot $121/sqft · 17% below area Est $380k · 41% under ↓ 13% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity for equity building potential in a spacious house with double wide lot with an attached art/music studio/additional family room and what used to be the attached 2 car garage. New kitchen, refinished hardwood floors that may need some work again, exterior painted, etc. Likely needs boiler replacement, plumbing replacement, electrical work, etc. Detached garage currently on the alley. Cash/hard money/private funding only for fast closing.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• Double wide lot
• Art music studio

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE LOT
• ART MUSIC STUDIO
• NEW KITCHEN
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EXTERIOR PAINTED
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.16 acres (approx. 127 x 56)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; Block foundation
• Construction: Foundation area approximately 1,310; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,892; Below-grade finished area approximately 728; Total living area approximately 2,620; Total building area approximately 2,584
• Exterior features: Deck; Metal and vinyl exterior

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (all upper level)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.1% in Minneapolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#110 in MN, #2,525 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F.
• Minneapolis Public School District (urban): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #217 of 301 in MN (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 149 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $161k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1908 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $218,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1908 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,329
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -40.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3532 10th Ave S	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (-9%)	17mo	$294,000	$173	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-21,861
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $8,357
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 34 Tenant-Leaning
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Minneapolis: 34 Tenant-Leaning · D+50

Tenant Opportunity to Purchase; renter's protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55407

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,199 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,374/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,967

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $338	-5% $260	+0% $183	+5% $105	+10% $27
Rent	-10% $9	-5% $96	+0% $183	+5% $270	+10% $356
Rate	-1.0pp $296	-0.5pp $240	base $183	+0.5pp $124	+1.0pp $65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
739 E 27th St Unit 739 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1699	$2,600	$1.53	25d	1	0.63mi
2540 12th Ave S Apt 2 Minneapolis, MN	5.0	2.0	1700	$2,450	$1.44	44d	1	0.65mi
2730 Portland Ave Minneapolis, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,755	$1.87	8d	3	0.79mi
412 E 34th St Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.5	1763	$1,800	$1.02	25d	1	0.85mi
3322 Clinton Ave #2 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1700	$1,995	$1.17	25d	1	0.93mi
2121 11th Ave S Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1800	$2,450	$1.36	4d	1	0.99mi
220 E 27th St #1 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	2516	$3,100	$1.23	18d	1	1.05mi
3901 18th Ave S Minneapolis, MN	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,545	$0.92	4d	1	1.06mi
2821 1st Ave S Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1743	$1,600	$0.92	3d	1	1.13mi
1819 15th Ave S Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.5	1700	$2,050	$1.21	14d	1	1.18mi
1 W 33rd St Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.5	1417	$2,695	$1.90	0d	1	1.22mi
3921 Portland Ave Minneapolis, MN	3.0	2.0	2016	$1,750	$0.87	45d	1	1.24mi
13 W 33rd St Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1500	$2,295	$1.53	44d	1	1.24mi
2916 30th Ave S Unit D Minneapolis, MN	4.0	2.0	1853	$2,497	$1.35	44d	1	1.25mi
3729 2nd Ave S Minneapolis, MN	5.0	2.0	1700	$2,100	$1.24	15d	1	1.27mi
2016 25th Ave S Minneapolis, MN	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,900	$1.19	44d	1	1.35mi
4212 13th Ave S Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	44d	1	1.42mi
735 E 16th St #2 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,650	$1.27	25d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $224,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    price $224,900 452-char remark
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $234,900 Active 452-char remark
16. 2026-04-17
    historical
17. 2025-10-15
    price $249,900
18. 2025-10-11
    price $264,900
19. 2025-09-22
    listed $274,900 Active
20. 2021-02-12
    listed $299,900 Active
21. 2021-01-01
    soldstatus $185,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$3,374
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,111
• − Management: −$2,111
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$1,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$354
• After-tax cash flow: $2,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Minneapolis Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2721240
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,521
• Composite: 34.92/100
• National rank: #5067
• State rank: #217 of 301 in MN

Livability — Minneapolis

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #2525

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Minneapolis, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 417,555
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 37,667
• Household income: $78,464
• Rent vs Own: 41.1% rent · 58.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1583.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 18% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.97%
• Current HPI: 292.0322
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-12.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $161,400 Public Records
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $224,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $234,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $249,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $264,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-22 Listed $274,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-12 Listed $299,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,701 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.