1806 Padbury Ave SE · Roanoke, VA 24014

$154,624

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 218 Days on market

Built 1947 7,405 sqft lot $221/sqft · 39% above area Est $223k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Occupied - Lease end 4/30/26

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1947
• Listed 218 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($137/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Roanoke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#163 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, crime F.
• Roanoke City Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #102 of 131 in VA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 113 units permitted in Roanoke city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roanoke County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $155k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,678 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.32%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,605
• List price: $154,624
• Delta: -30.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-17,777
• Equity at exit: $23,055

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $15,287
• Equity at exit: $13,369

Cash invested: $43,295 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24014

• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,247 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$811
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,179/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,232

Max offer price $154,624

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,656
• Closing costs: $4,639
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1716 Rutrough Rd SE Roanoke, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	572	$1,275	$2.23	13d	6	0.35mi
601 Highland Ave SE Apt B Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	617	$975	$1.58	20d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,624 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,624 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,624 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,624 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,624 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,624 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $154,624 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,624 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,624 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $154,624 Active 204 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,624 Active 203 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,624 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,624 Active 201 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,624 Active 200 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $154,624 Active 199 DOM
16. 2026-02-06
    price $154,624 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Occupied - Lease end 4/30/26

17. 2026-01-05
    price $157,780 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Occupied - Lease end 4/30/26

18. 2025-11-10
    listed $161,000 Active 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Occupied - Lease end 4/30/26

19. 2006-04-11
    soldstatus $52,000
20. 2006-04-11
    soldstatus $52,000
21. 1995-05-19
    soldstatus $38,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,179 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,268 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$89/yr (+$7/mo · 7.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,661
• − Property taxes: −$1,179
• − Insurance: −$773
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,197
• − Management: −$1,197
• − Depreciation: −$4,498
• Taxable loss: −$2,544
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$610
• After-tax cash flow: $748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roanoke City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103300
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,592
• Composite: 40.8/100
• National rank: #3639
• State rank: #102 of 131 in VA

Livability — Roanoke

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #5055

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roanoke, VA
• County: Roanoke City · 101,625 people
• City population: 168,930
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 15,300
• Household income: $70,381
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Roanoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,094 people
• By 2030: 108,927 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 114,104 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 118,032 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 123,363 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 116,827 · +10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roanoke

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.6) · D 61.1% · R 37.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 23.4pp · 2024: 23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.6 2020: D+25.8 2016: D+17.6 2012: D+21.5 2008: D+23.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -344.06%
• Current HPI: 173.6728
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.80%
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+301.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $154,624 MLSRV
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $157,780 MLSRV
• 2025-11-10 Listed $161,000 MLSRV
• 2006-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,179 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.