46564 Yorktown Rd · Lexington Park, MD 20653

$288,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1947 5,888 sqft lot Est $309k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming Updated Colonial with Modern Kitchen, Private Owner’s Suite & Solar Savings Welcome home to this beautifully maintained Colonial offering timeless curb appeal, modern updates, and energy-efficient living in a convenient Lexington Park location. Nestled behind a classic white picket fence, this inviting property combines charm, comfort, and functionality. Step inside to discover a warm and welcoming floor plan featuring generous living spaces designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious family room is centered around a cozy pellet stove, creating the perfect gathering space on cool evenings. The heart of the home is the large, modern kitchen, offering

Key facts

• Private owners suite
• Charming front porch
• Solar savings

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE OWNERS SUITE
• SOLAR SAVINGS
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• CHARMING FRONT PORCH
• SEPARATE OFFICE SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Three off-street parking spaces (three total garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Detached property; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Combination construction materials; Block foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Privacy fencing at the rear; Aluminum fencing

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (two full on the upper level, one full on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump cooling; Heat pump heating; Oil and electric heating fuel
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Living area reported by assessor
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main floor; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $288k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($730/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.0% in Lexington Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#331 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lexington Park Elementary (math 30% / reading 29%, grade F, #201 of 860 statewide, top 25%, 398 students, 83% FRL); Spring Ridge Middle (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #81 of 225 statewide, top 38%, 987 students, 60% FRL); Great Mills High (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #111 of 222 statewide, top 50%, 1,779 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 28% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 93 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $288k implies a 911% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,309 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.90%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,950
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46581 Midway Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,800 (-3%)	11mo	$260,000	$144	82
21713 Saint Lo Pl	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,687 (-9%)	11mo	$225,000	$133	70
21703 Cabot Pl	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-11%)	7mo	$275,000	$167	66
21683 Hancock Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	2,062 (+12%)	7mo	$130,000	$63	64
21741 Gambier Pl	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,650 (-11%)	11mo	$265,000	$161	57
21733 Gambier Pl	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,935 (+5%)	12mo	$230,000	$119	56
21456 Lynn Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,850 (0%)	9mo	$394,900	$213	50
21975 Stoney Brook Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-7%)	19mo	$340,000	$197	48
21444 Morris Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,920 (+4%)	9mo	$408,900	$213	47
21994 Spring Valley Ct	0.47mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,900 (+3%)	14mo	$360,000	$189	47
21936 Spring Valley Dr	0.36mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,584 (-14%)	14mo	$322,000	$203	40
21969 Rosewood Ter	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,044 (+10%)	16mo	$287,500	$141	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-48,598
• Equity at exit: $42,942

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-59,988
• Equity at exit: $24,901

Cash invested: $80,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20653

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,313 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,236

Max offer price $288,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $224	-5% $142	+0% $61	+5% $-21	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-31	+0% $61	+5% $152	+10% $244
Rate	-1.0pp $206	-0.5pp $134	base $61	+0.5pp $-14	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,000
• Closing costs: $8,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21967 Cuddihy Rd Patuxent River, MD	3.0	2.5	1770	$2,466	$1.39	26d	1	0.57mi
21560 Green Tree Dr Lexington Park, MD	2.0–4.0	1.5–2.5	1950	$2,312	$1.19	26d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $288,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $288,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $288,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $288,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $288,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $288,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $288,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   remarks 689-char remark
9. 2026-06-14
   listed $288,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,635 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,387 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$752/yr (+$63/mo · 46.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,132
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$1,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,221
• − Management: −$2,221
• − Depreciation: −$8,378
• Taxable loss: −$4,270
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,025
• After-tax cash flow: $1,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — Lexington Park

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #17418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington Park, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 26,852
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 26,852
• Household income: $103,048
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1571.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 28% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.67%
• Current HPI: 256.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+910.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $288,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1977-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,635 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.