Is 17372 Firebird Dr in Jacksonville, FL a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.3% cap rate and $-276/mo modeled cash flow at a $341,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 17372 Firebird Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 5.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,733/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 44.96

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +10.2/15.0
Cash flow +8.9/30.0
Appreciation +5.2/10.0
Schools +4.5/10.0
Livability +4.2/5.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.0/10.0
DSCR +2.5/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0

$341,990

17372 Firebird Dr · Jacksonville, FL 32234

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,286 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,662 sqft lot 2-car garage $150/sqft · 6% below area Est $364k · 6% under $72/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

THE EMORY II | 2,286 SQUARE FEET Discover sophisticated single-level living enhanced by a bonus upstairs suite in this meticulously designed Emory II plan. The thoughtfully configured main floor centers around an open-concept heart of the home, where the gourmet kitchen flows seamlessly into inviting living spaces.

Key facts

Formal dining room
Gourmet kitchen
Walk-in pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $342k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (11.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (20.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $273k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 430 students, 61% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Baldwin Middle-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 1,384 students, 43% FRL).
Market conditions: 381 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $273,324 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.80% ✗
Cap rate: 5.32%
Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
DSCR: 0.85
GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $364,200
List price: $341,990
Delta: -6.10%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14487 Firebird Dr	0.01mi	4/3.0	2,246 (-2%)	4mo	$368,400	$164	93
14394 Creekbluff Way	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,286 (0%)	4mo	$360,000	$157	88
14349 Firebird Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,286 (0%)	3mo	$350,000	$153	88
14367 Firebird Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,246 (-2%)	1mo	$358,000	$159	88
14426 Firebird Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,188 (-4%)	6mo	$355,000	$162	83
14469 Firebird Dr	0.02mi	4/3.0	2,488 (+9%)	2mo	$420,000	$169	83
14462 Firebird Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	2,088 (-9%)	6mo	$358,000	$171	75
14445 Firebird Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	2,088 (-9%)	4mo	$359,000	$172	75
14325 Firebird Dr	0.24mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,188 (-4%)	3mo	$351,000	$160	74
14358 Creekbluff Way	0.23mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,188 (-4%)	4mo	$349,990	$160	74
14427 Firebird Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,088 (-9%)	7mo	$376,000	$180	71
14439 Firebird Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,488 (+9%)	4mo	$395,500	$159	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -4.3%
Equity multiple: 0.79×
Total profit: $-20,206
Equity at exit: $107,071

10-year hold

IRR: 1.2%
Equity multiple: 1.14×
Total profit: $13,381
Equity at exit: $135,079

Cash invested: $95,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 40 active · 32 under contract
Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $376,445 ($159/sqft)
Median days on market: 38 d
This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +-0.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32234

Home prices YoY: 0.2%
Active inventory: 381
Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,733 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,793
Tax est. 1.5%: −$427 /mo · $5,130/yr
Insurance: −$142
HOA: −$72
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
Net cashflow: $-276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,083

Max offer price $302,030

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-40	-5% $-158	+0% $-276	+5% $-394	+10% $-512
Rent	-10% $-492	-5% $-384	+0% $-276	+5% $-168	+10% $-60
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-189	base $-276	+0.5pp $-365	+1.0pp $-455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $85,498
Closing costs: $10,260
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5724 Lagoon Cruise Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2494	$2,800	$1.12	100d	1	1.31mi
15180 Bareback Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$1,899	$1.03	82d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Community association (Sovereign and Jacobs)Quarterly association fee of $215Association amenities: barbecue area, dog park, playground

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Public sewerWater availableSewer connectedElectricity available and connectedCable availableNatural gas not available
Home design: Single family residenceTwo levelsFacing south
Construction: Fiber cement and frame constructionShingle roof
Exterior features: Covered front porchCovered rear porchSmoke detector(s)Cleared lotCity street frontageAsphalt road surface

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric ovenMicrowaveENERGY STAR qualified electric water heater
Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary on the first floor)
Flooring: CarpetLaminate
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, heat pump)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features: Open floorplanEat-in kitchenKitchen islandPantrySmart thermostatSplit bedroom layoutWalk-in closetsPrivate water closetBuilt-in closet9 total rooms
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup (lower level)

Listing history 30 events

2026-07-13

days on market $341,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $341,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $341,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $341,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $341,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $341,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $341,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $341,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $341,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $341,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $341,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $341,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $341,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $341,990 Active 68 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $341,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $341,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $341,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $341,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $341,990 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $341,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $341,990 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $341,990 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $341,990 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $341,990 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-05

days on market $341,990 Active 45 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $341,990 Active 44 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $341,990 Active 43 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $341,990 Active 42 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $341,990 Active 41 DOM
2026-04-20

listed $341,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $32,799
− Mortgage interest: −$19,157
− Property taxes: −$5,130
− Insurance: −$1,710
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,624
− Management: −$2,624
− HOA: −$864
− Depreciation: −$9,949
Taxable loss: −$9,258

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,222
After-tax cash flow: $-1,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping the front yard — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
Both Adding a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds value to the home ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School C- FL #990/2,144 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 High Baldwin Middle-Senior High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Duval
NCES district ID: 1200480
Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $48,987
Composite: 38.97/100
National rank: #4076
State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 83/100

Livability — Jacksonville

Score: 83/100
State rank: #50
US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Jacksonville, FL
County: Duval County · 1,013,010 people
City population: 979,034
Metro: Jacksonville, FL
Population (ZIP): 9,678
Household income: $87,331
Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
Severe rent burden: 33% of renters

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
Current HPI: 288.4613
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Jacksonville, FL
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Industrial Technology	2	$29B
#159 Carrier Global Palm Beach Gardens $22.2B #376 Roper Technologies Sarasota $6.8B
Insurance	2	$17B
#348 Fidelity National Financial Jacksonville $12.1B #494 Brown & Brown Daytona Beach $4.6B
Retail	1	$60B
#71 Publix Super Markets Lakeland $60.2B
Technology Distribution	1	$58B
#73 TD Synnex Clearwater $58.5B
Homebuilding	1	$35B
#185 Lennar Miami $35.4B
Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B
#122 Jabil St. Petersburg $34.7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-04-20 Listed $341,990 realMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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