541 S Ellis St · Cape Girardeau, MO 63703

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1920 9,016 sqft lot $64/sqft · 9% below area Est $93k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your vision and unlock the value in this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home! With plenty of living space and a flexible layout, this property is a prime opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to build instant equity. Whether you’re ready to renovate, flip, or customize for your own needs, this home has all the bones to become something special. Tenant Occupied

Key facts

• 9,016 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 93 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($567/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.9% in Cape Girardeau — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#297 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Cape Girardeau 63 (urban): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #188 of 324 in MO (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 81 units permitted in Cape Girardeau County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cape Girardeau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,524 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.69%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,599
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 29.59%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
906 S Pacific St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,695 (-9%)	10mo	$139,000	$82	57
418 S Benton St	0.21mi	2/1.5	1,716 (-8%)	23mo	$30,000	$17	56
803 William St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,680 (-10%)	6mo	$84,900	$51	53
222 Good Hope St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,692 (-9%)	4mo	$275,000	$163	50
424 S West End Blvd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,757 (-6%)	18mo	$109,900	$63	50
135 S Ellis St	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,655 (-11%)	10mo	$79,000	$48	49
1601 Bloomfield St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,692 (-9%)	3mo	$99,900	$59	48
1316 Good Hope St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (-4%)	21mo	$169,900	$95	47
1122 Ranney Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,789 (-4%)	15mo	$115,000	$64	46
622 S Park Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	2,112 (+13%)	10mo	$109,900	$52	45
1137 Pacific S	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,738 (-7%)	21mo	$44,900	$26	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-16,485
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-10,683
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63703

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $526/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $915

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Cape Girardeau Cape Girardeau, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	931	$800	$0.86	44d	7	0.94mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 74 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $120,000 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Bring your vision and unlock the value in this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home! With plenty of living space and a flexible layout, this property is a prime opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to build instant equity. Whether you’re ready to renovate, flip, or customize for your own needs, this home has all the bones to become something special. Tenant Occupied

19. 2026-03-17
    listed $125,000 Active 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Bring your vision and unlock the value in this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home! With plenty of living space and a flexible layout, this property is a prime opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to build instant equity. Whether you’re ready to renovate, flip, or customize for your own needs, this home has all the bones to become something special. Tenant Occupied

20. 2025-12-08
    price $130,000
21. 2025-09-17
    listed $140,000 Active
22. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus
24. 2022-12-05
    status Pending
25. 2022-11-30
    historical Active Under Contract
26. 2022-07-13
    status Active
27. 2022-07-08
    historical
28. 2022-05-24
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $526 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,164 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$638/yr (+$53/mo · 121.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$526
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$936
• − Management: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$362
• After-tax cash flow: $929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cape Girardeau 63
• NCES district ID: 2907120
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,543
• Composite: 31.49/100
• National rank: #5974
• State rank: #188 of 324 in MO

Livability — Cape Girardeau

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #297
• US rank: #13759

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Girardeau, MO
• County: Cape Girardeau County · 75,175 people
• City population: 47,546
• Metro: Cape Girardeau, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 8,201
• Household income: $38,695
• Rent vs Own: 57.4% rent · 42.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 617.0

Population outlook (Cape Girardeau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,807 people
• By 2030: 88,016 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 93,914 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 99,541 · +17.4%
• By 2075: 114,527 · +35.0%
• By 2100: 121,718 · +43.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cape Girardeau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.5) · D 26.2% · R 72.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -46.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.5 2020: R+45.0 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+43.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.10%
• Current HPI: 152.013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cape Girardeau, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+71.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $130,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Listed $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-30 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-05 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-30 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-13 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-08 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-24 Listed $69,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $526 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.