23 N Welsh Ter · Inverness Highlands North, FL 34453

$269,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,818 sqft · Land · 70 Days on market

Built 2026 0.44 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Unveil a world of comfort at this new residence within the peaceful confines of the Inverness Community! Discover modern living with the Braselton Plan a charming single-story home. The open design seamlessly connects the Living, Dining, and Kitchen areas. The chef’s dream kitchen features sophisticated cabinetry, elegant quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances, including a smooth-top range, microwave hood, and dishwasher. The expansive primary suite offers a private bath with dual vanity sinks and a spacious walk-in closet. With three additional bedrooms, a whole secondary bath, and a two-car garage, this home is perfect. . Energy-efficient Low-E insula

Key facts

• Open design
• Chef's dream kitchen
• Private bath

Tags

• OPEN DESIGN
• CHEF'S DREAM KITCHEN
• SOPHISTICATED CABINETRY
• ELEGANT QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.44 acres (80 x 120); Living area approximately 1818 (builder); Total building area approximately 2198 (builder); Lot acreage: 1/4 to less than 1/2; Zoning: MDR

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story home; Under construction (projected completion July 29, 2026); Faces south
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block and slab foundation; New construction; Builder: CENTURY COMPLETE (Model: BRASELTON-B); Permit number BLD2510-1719; Built/Projected 2026
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric water heater; Other kitchen features
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-356 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#643 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $270k implies a 1842% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,157 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.65%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-66,376
• Equity at exit: $40,256

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-86,853
• Equity at exit: $23,344

Cash invested: $75,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34453

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,912 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,362

Max offer price $218,520

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,498
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3880 E Byrd St Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,600	$1.16	21d	1	0.24mi
167 N Independence Hwy Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,800	$1.17	21d	1	0.50mi
543 N Rooks Ave Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,900	$1.47	21d	1	1.00mi
815 E Rembrandt Way Unit 424 Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,850	$1.47	21d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-08
   price $269,990
2. 2026-04-24
   price $273,990
3. 2026-03-19
   listed $283,990 Active
4. 2024-06-06
   soldstatus $13,900
5. 2005-07-07
   soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,835
• − Management: −$1,835
• − Depreciation: −$7,854
• Taxable loss: −$9,109
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,186
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Inverness Highlands North

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #643
• US rank: #12713

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Inverness Highlands North, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,621
• Household income: $57,568
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 240.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.32%
• Current HPI: 291.8965
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+513.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $269,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $273,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $283,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $13,900 Public Records
• 2005-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $248 · +29.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.