360 E Grant Line Rd Unit 19 A · Tracy, CA 95376

$94,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured · 131 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $128k · 26% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new 2026 Champion Manufactured Home featuring 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Located in the Oasis Trailer Park community, this home offers a kitchen with stone countertops and stainless steel appliances. Modern finishes and a well-designed layout make this an ideal opportunity for comfortable, efficient living. Affordable space rent of $995 per month.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 2026
• Listed 131 days

Tags

• KITCHEN WITH STONE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $94,950 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$128,128) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 2.6% in Tracy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#496 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tracy Joint Unified (suburban): math 22% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #305 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,556 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.19%
• DSCR: 3.10
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,128
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
360 E Grant Line Rd Unit 19 A	0.00mi	2/1.0	728 (0%)	1mo	$95,000	$130	99
360 E Grant Line Rd Spc 18	0.00mi	2/1.0	675 (-7%)	1mo	$119,000	$176	87

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $51,750
• Equity at exit: $14,157

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $133,079
• Equity at exit: $8,210

Cash invested: $26,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95376

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,154 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $1,045

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $94,950

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,111	-5% $1,078	+0% $1,045	+5% $1,013	+10% $980
Rent	-10% $875	-5% $960	+0% $1,045	+5% $1,130	+10% $1,216
Rate	-1.0pp $1,093	-0.5pp $1,070	base $1,045	+0.5pp $1,021	+1.0pp $996

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,738
• Closing costs: $2,848
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 N Tracy Blvd Tracy, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	824	$2,495	$3.03	3d	9	0.86mi
2910 N Tracy Blvd Unit 34 Tracy, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,595	$2.45	15d	1	0.91mi
1441 Parker Ave Tracy, CA	1.0	1.0	568	$1,495	$2.63	3d	1	0.92mi
950 W Grant Line Rd Tracy, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	821	$2,255	$2.75	3d	15	1.05mi
1145 Parker Ave Tracy, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,095	$2.99	3d	1	1.11mi
1143 Parker Ave Tracy, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,095	$2.99	3d	1	1.11mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,319
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,068
• − Management: −$2,068
• − Depreciation: −$2,762
• Taxable income: $11,731
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,816
• After-tax cash flow: $9,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tracy Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600047
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $73,095
• Composite: 27.94/100
• National rank: #6862
• State rank: #305 of 517 in CA

Livability — Tracy

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #496
• US rank: #16717

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tracy, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 133,642
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,488
• Household income: $102,555
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1328.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 27% Two or more races 21% Asian 13% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -436.54%
• Current HPI: 255.8813
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.24%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B