1309 5th Ave · Scottsbluff, NE 69361

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1940 3,500 sqft lot Est $134k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 32 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding
• Exterior features: Chain link and wood fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Full, partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $80k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $80k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.1% in Scottsbluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#127 in NE, #4,862 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities D-.
• Scottsbluff Public Schools (town): math 45% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #89 of 111 in NE (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Scotts Bluff County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Scotts Bluff County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $85k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $80,453 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.41%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,728
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1816 10th Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0	676 (+1%)	10mo	$50,000	$74	69
313 E 17th St	0.27mi	1/1.0 (-1)	706 (+5%)	21mo	$110,000	$156	57
405 W Overland	0.67mi	2/1.0	720 (+7%)	1mo	$159,000	$221	56
1905 8th Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	644 (-4%)	20mo	$130,000	$202	47
1510 16th Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0	572 (-15%)	9mo	$114,000	$199	37
1910 9th Ave	0.46mi	2/2.0	572 (-15%)	24mo	$107,000	$187	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-8,213
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-26
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 69361

• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $803/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $694

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $112	+0% $87	+5% $63	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $24	-5% $56	+0% $87	+5% $119	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $109	base $87	+0.5pp $65	+1.0pp $43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $85,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $90,000 Active
17. 2005-04-20
    soldstatus $23,000
18. 1998-07-23
    soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $803 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,470 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$667/yr (+$56/mo · 83.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$803
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$772
• − Management: −$772
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable loss: −$352
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$85
• After-tax cash flow: $1,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsbluff Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3176470
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,931
• Composite: 36.14/100
• National rank: #4745
• State rank: #89 of 111 in NE

Livability — Scottsbluff

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #4862

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsbluff, NE
• Population (ZIP): 16,965

Population outlook (Scotts Bluff County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,740 people
• By 2030: 35,229 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 34,160 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 33,656 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 35,257 · -1.4%
• By 2100: 39,158 · +9.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Scotts Bluff

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.7) · D 25.6% · R 73.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -47.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.7 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+48.9 2012: R+37.7 2008: R+33.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.96%
• Current HPI: 169.5952
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+210.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $90,000 WNBOR
• 2005-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $803 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.