7873 Williams St · Pinson, AL 35126

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,469 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 458 Days on market

Built 1960 0.50 ac lot $112/sqft · 20% below area Est $205k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property sits on half an acre off Highway 75. It is located right by the development that will open a four-lane, 10-mile segment of highway called Interstate 422 between U. S. Highway 31, north of Gardendale, and Alabama Highway 75, north of Pinson. It's a great investment!

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 458 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 5.3% in Pinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#289 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 458 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $165k implies a 1275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 458 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.78%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,125
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -19.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7840 Williams St	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (+0%)	12mo	$163,500	$111	80
9077 Horse Trail Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-1%)	11mo	$275,000	$189	56
5249 Clay Palmerdale Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-15%)	8mo	$205,000	$164	53
7448 Plantation Rd	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,628 (+11%)	11mo	$213,000	$131	35
8140 N Valley Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (+14%)	9mo	$275,000	$164	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-433
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $26,539
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35126

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,811 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $521/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,237

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $547	-5% $500	+0% $453	+5% $407	+10% $360
Rent	-10% $310	-5% $382	+0% $453	+5% $525	+10% $596
Rate	-1.0pp $536	-0.5pp $495	base $453	+0.5pp $411	+1.0pp $367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 458 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 457 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 456 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 455 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 453 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 450 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 449 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 448 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 447 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 443 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 442 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 441 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 440 DOM
14. 2026-02-18
    price $165,000 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    This property sits on half an acre off Highway 75. It is located right by the development that will open a four-lane, 10-mile segment of highway called Interstate 422 between U. S. Highway 31, north of Gardendale, and Alabama Highway 75, north of Pinson. It's a great investment!

15. 2025-03-17
    listed $180,000 Active 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    This property sits on half an acre off Highway 75. It is located right by the development that will open a four-lane, 10-mile segment of highway called Interstate 422 between U. S. Highway 31, north of Gardendale, and Alabama Highway 75, north of Pinson. It's a great investment!

16. 1976-05-10
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $521 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $677 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$155/yr (+$13/mo · 29.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$521
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,739
• − Management: −$1,739
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $2,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$688
• After-tax cash flow: $4,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Pinson

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #18763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinson, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 22,599
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 22,599
• Household income: $83,732
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 267.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.52%
• Current HPI: 188.6439
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+1275.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $165,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-03-17 Listed $180,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1976-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $521 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.