1311 Barbara Dr · San Marcos, TX 78666

$310,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,190 sqft · MultiFamily · 93 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition 0.44 ac lot $142/sqft · at area comps Est $326k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Each side is a cute 2/2 with stained concrete floors. Roof put on in October of 2024. Granite and stainless appliances in the kitchens. Baths updated within last 7 years. Each side has a 1-car garage. Fully rented with long-term tenants. Priced below Hay County tax value, so taxes would go down even more. Great investment opportunity or live in one side and rent the other!

Key facts

• Baths updated
• 1-car garage
• Fully rented

Tags

• STAINED CONCRETE FLOORS
• BATHS UPDATED
• 1-CAR GARAGE
• FULLY RENTED
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-846/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mendez El (math 6% / reading 16%, grade F, #4,237 of 4,322 statewide, top 98%, 496 students, 90% FRL); Miller Middle (math 21% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 986 students, 74% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 63% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1146 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,815/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 6504% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,500 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.13%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,776
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -4.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-57,450
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-66,756
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1146
• Price-to-rent: 18.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,650/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,904

Max offer price $299,794

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $37	+0% $-71	+5% $-178	+10% $-285
Rent	-10% $-293	-5% $-182	+0% $-71	+5% $41	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $8	base $-71	+0.5pp $-151	+1.0pp $-233

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$2,816
Total (2 units)			$2,815

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1303 Conway Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,590	$1.06	9d	1	0.07mi
200 Springtown Way San Marcos, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1059	$3,780	$3.57	6d	1	0.49mi
200 Springtown Way San Marcos, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1059	$1,550	$1.46	45d	13	0.49mi
620 Barbara Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1728	$1,700	$0.98	19d	1	0.68mi
421 Shadowpoint San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1743	$1,900	$1.09	9d	1	1.14mi
210 N Edward Gary St San Marcos, TX	4.0	4.0	1388	$894	$0.64	3d	25	1.22mi
1655 Mill St San Marcos, TX	4.0	4.0	1636	$2,938	$1.80	0d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $310,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $310,000 Active Under Contract 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $310,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $310,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-03-20
    listed $375,000 Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Each side is a cute 2/2 with stained concrete floors. Roof put on in October of 2024. Granite and stainless appliances in the kitchens. Baths updated within last 7 years. Each side has a 1-car garage. Fully rented with long-term tenants. Priced below Hay County tax value, so taxes would go down even more. Great investment opportunity or live in one side and rent the other!

16. 2025-04-18
    price
17. 2025-03-19
    price
18. 2025-01-21
    price
19. 2024-12-04
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AH · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$4,650
• − Insurance: −$3,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,702
• − Management: −$2,702
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$6,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,448
• After-tax cash flow: $601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This multi-family home is in good condition with recent updates and a fresh roof. It's currently fully rented, making it a great investment opportunity. Simple cosmetic updates could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or granite — Quartz or granite countertops are more durable and aesthetically pleasing
• Resale Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring in bathrooms can significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or granite — Quartz or granite countertops are more durable and aesthetically pleasing ↑
• Resale Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring in bathrooms can significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6504.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $375,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-12-04 Listed — Unlock MLS